Game Recap: VGK 4, COL 2, May 20, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK4

FinalWed, May 20, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

COL2

VGK beat COL 4-2, with the chances close: 3.11 expected goals to 3.02. COL outshot VGK 38 to 28. S. Theodore had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. Hart stopped 36 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	2	2	4
COL	0	0	2	2

2nd 12:29VGKD. Coghlan0.07 xG
2nd 15:02VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.12 xG
3rd 1:34VGKB. Howden0.31 xG
3rd 5:53COLV. Nichushkin0.07 xG
3rd 17:39COLG. LandeskogPP0.19 xG
3rd 19:15VGKN. DowdEN0.71 xG

Team Stats

VGKCOL

28Shots on goal38

3.11Expected goals3.02

48Shot attempts80

265v5 shots on goal32

1/2Power play1/3

34Hits31

23Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes4

23Giveaways9

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.11 xGCOL 3.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK28 on goal, 4 scored

COL38 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	21:35	2:06
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	19:32	2:07
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	18:11	0:39
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	14:21	2:06
N. Dowd	C	1	0	1	1	4	2	+1	0	13:18	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	1	5	2	+1	0	11:28	0:00
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	10:45	2:04
B. Saad	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	8:10	0:00
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	21:11	0:40
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	16:25	0:42
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	11:56	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	10:02	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	23:32	0:40
B. Hutton	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	10:01	0:00
D. Coghlan	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	8:13	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	5	0	7	+1	2	27:22	1:33
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	5	3	+1	0	25:42	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	23:29	1:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	38	36	2	.947	60:00	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	21:32	4:19
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	21:21	4:21
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	13:39	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	3	6	1	+1	2	9:55	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	23:41	4:43
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	19:26	4:20
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-3	0	18:15	1:15
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	15:42	0:02
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	12:40	0:25
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:16	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:55	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:57	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	27:32	4:29
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	23:06	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:31	0:26
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	0	19:02	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	2	16:55	0:22
J. Ahcan	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	7:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	27	24	3	.889	57:15	Loss
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Marner17:10B. Howden16:12W. Karlsson15:35

Line 2I. Barbashev14:59J. Eichel12:44P. Dorofeyev12:15

Line 3N. Dowd12:42C. Smith11:56K. Kolesar10:02

Line 4C. Sissons10:37B. Saad8:10T. Hertl8:41

Pair 1B. McNabb19:48S. Theodore22:29

Pair 2N. Hanifin21:24R. Andersson19:27

Pair 3B. Hutton10:01D. Coghlan8:13

COL

Line 1G. Landeskog15:43N. MacKinnon15:56M. Necas17:41

Line 2B. Nelson13:39A. Lehkonen14:14N. Roy11:34

Line 3N. Kadri13:49R. Colton9:35V. Nichushkin11:15

Line 4J. Drury9:35L. O'Connor9:34P. Kelly8:37

Pair 1D. Toews19:30S. Malinski18:54

Pair 2B. Burns15:40B. Kulak22:33

Pair 3J. Manson17:02J. Ahcan7:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Roy COL Faces VGK, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.8, COL 3.5	VGK 4, COL 2
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	VGK 25.8, COL 31.0	VGK 28, COL 38
Win chance	COL 61%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	3	1.40	1	40%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	3	0.96	1	27%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	3	1.09	0	30%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	3	0.58	1	29%	1
COL G. Landeskog	2.5	3	0.86	1	31%	1
COL N. Kadri	2.4	5	0.67	0	24%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.0	2	0.90	1	25%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.0	1	0.43	0	9%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.9	1	0.62	0	26%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.8	4	0.61	0	27%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	1.8	3	0.59	1	25%	1
VGK W. Karlsson	1.8	1	0.46	0	18%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.7	5	0.59	0	11%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	2	0.35	0	9%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.7	0	0.37	1	9%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	2	0.55	1	11%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.6	1	0.44	1	18%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	2	0.56	0	20%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.5	1	0.14	1	3%	1
COL R. Colton	1.5	3	0.30	1	14%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.5	1	0.37	0	7%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	4	0.42	1	20%	1
COL J. Manson	1.3	2	0.29	0	6%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	1	0.25	0	5%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.1	0	0.21	1	11%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.21	1	9%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	1	0.28	0	12%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.0	1	0.17	1	4%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.0	2	0.26	0	11%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	1	0.18	0	4%	0
COL N. Roy	1.0	1	0.34	0	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.0	1	0.25	0	9%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.9	1	0.23	1	11%	1
VGK C. Smith	0.8	0	0.16	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.7	1	0.17	0	8%	0
COL J. Ahcan	0.5	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.