Game Recap: VGK 3, COL 1, May 22, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK3

FinalFri, May 22, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

COL1

VGK beat COL 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.14 expected goals to 2.24. I. Barbashev led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Burns had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. Hart stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	0	3	3
COL	1	0	0	1

1st 16:59COLR. Colton0.09 xG
3rd 9:15VGKJ. Eichel0.02 xG
3rd 11:22VGKI. Barbashev0.05 xG
3rd 18:57VGKI. BarbashevEN0.64 xG

Team Stats

VGKCOL

25Shots on goal30

3.14Expected goals2.24

52Shot attempts63

225v5 shots on goal25

0/4Power play0/2

32Hits28

16Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes8

10Giveaways16

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.14 xGCOL 2.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK25 on goal, 3 scored

COL30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Barbashev	LW	2	1	3	3	7	0	+3	0	16:15	1:19
J. Eichel	C	1	1	2	2	1	2	+3	2	19:06	4:24
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	0	17:56	4:29
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	21:02	3:58
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	17:42	1:57
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:09	1:23
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	13:43	0:02
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:23	4:30
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:03	0:03
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	9:48	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:18	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	9:13	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	26:41	1:37
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	4	25:32	3:29
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+2	0	24:01	2:34
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	16:42	0:12
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	12:13	0:03
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	17:48	3:25
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	8:18	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:30	3:43
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	4	21:05	3:34
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	20:16	3:35
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	18:06	0:35
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	16:23	0:25
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:07	0:26
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	11:39	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	9:56	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:52	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:35	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	5	1	2	+1	2	20:01	0:13
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	-2	0	28:59	3:47
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	20:40	1:42
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	20:07	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	16:45	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	24	22	2	.917	55:32	Loss
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev14:23P. Dorofeyev13:22J. Eichel13:12

Line 2M. Marner13:02B. Howden12:35W. Karlsson13:03

Line 3B. Saad9:18T. Hertl8:53C. Sissons9:49

Line 4N. Dowd9:52C. Smith8:45K. Kolesar8:10

Pair 1R. Andersson18:55N. Hanifin16:11

Pair 2B. McNabb9:21S. Theodore20:05

Pair 3D. Coghlan14:36K. Korczak11:13

COL

Line 1G. Landeskog14:37N. MacKinnon15:31M. Necas15:31

Line 2P. Kelly7:27L. O'Connor7:25J. Drury7:45

Line 3N. Kadri11:25R. Colton7:15N. Roy10:36

Line 4B. Nelson13:17A. Lehkonen12:16V. Nichushkin11:40

Pair 1D. Toews18:21S. Malinski16:28

Pair 2B. Kulak16:53J. Manson12:31

Pair 3B. Burns16:26N. Blankenburg9:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Roy COL Faces VGK, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.8, COL 3.5	VGK 3, COL 1
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	VGK 25.8, COL 31.5	VGK 25, COL 30
Win chance	COL 61%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	1	1.38	0	40%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	2	0.95	2	27%	1
COL M. Necas	2.7	2	1.10	0	31%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.6	3	0.87	0	32%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.5	2	0.69	1	25%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	2	0.58	2	29%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.0	4	0.91	0	25%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.0	3	0.43	0	9%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.9	1	0.61	0	27%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.9	2	0.49	0	19%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.8	2	0.59	0	25%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	1	0.60	0	11%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	1.8	2	0.57	0	25%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	5	0.34	1	8%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	3	0.57	0	11%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.7	1	0.38	1	9%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.6	1	0.44	0	17%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	3	0.55	3	20%	2
COL R. Colton	1.5	1	0.30	1	13%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	1.5	1	0.38	0	7%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	1	0.43	0	21%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	2	0.30	0	6%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.4	1	0.14	0	3%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	1	0.25	0	5%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.1	2	0.21	0	11%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.20	0	4%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	1	0.21	0	9%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.0	1	0.25	0	10%	0
COL N. Roy	1.0	1	0.33	0	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.9	1	0.24	0	11%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.8	1	0.16	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0
COL N. Blankenburg	0.6	0	0.16	0	4%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.5	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 29 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.