Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
VGK0
DET3
DET beat VGK 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.85 expected goals to 1.70. DET outshot VGK 27 to 18. P. Mrazek stopped 18 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 7:58DETA. Johansson0.05 xG
- 3rd 4:51DETL. Raymond0.16 xG
- 3rd 11:14DETM. Kasper0.09 xG
Team Stats
VGKDET
18Shots on goal27
1.70Expected goals2.85
50Shot attempts53
175v5 shots on goal26
0/0Power play0/2
21Hits15
10Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes2
23Giveaways15
7Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 1.70 xGDET 2.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:26 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 60:00 | Loss |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:08 | 3:15 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:39 | 3:15 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:02 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:43 | 1:05 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:43 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:18 | 3:15 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:54 | 2:53 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:43 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:30 | 0:43 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:02 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:02 |
| A. Johansson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:11 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 1:32 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 2:28 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:02 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.2, DET 3.1 | VGK 0, DET 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 28.3, DET 28.2 | VGK 18, DET 27 |
| Win chance | VGK 51% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.1 | 2 | 1.05 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.0 | 0 | 0.93 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.9 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 4 | 0.87 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.3 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.1 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.9 | 4 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.5 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.