Game Recap: VGK 2, DET 1, November 5, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK2

FinalThu, Nov 5, 2026Every game that night

DET1

VGK beat DET 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.60 expected goals to 2.60. VGK outshot DET 34 to 26. B. Bowman had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. C. Hart stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	0	2	2
DET	0	0	1	1

3rd 2:02DETA. Johansson0.07 xG
3rd 4:20VGKB. Bowman0.05 xG
3rd 18:18VGKT. Connelly0.10 xG

Team Stats

VGKDET

34Shots on goal26

3.60Expected goals2.60

58Shot attempts59

255v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play0/2

15Hits16

11Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways14

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.60 xGDET 2.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK31 on goal, 2 scored

DET26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	0	21:46	4:11
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	14:26	4:44
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:08	4:24
B. Bowman	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	2	12:58	1:21
T. Connelly	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:19	1:04
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	23:24	4:24
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	19:07	4:14
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:35	1:13
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:38	0:28
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	14:08	0:31
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	9:37	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	8:11	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	+1	0	18:29	1:51
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	24:04	1:35
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	21:35	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	18:53	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:35	0:00
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	13:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	26	25	1	.962	59:11	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Dries	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	8:38	0:00
C. Mazur	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	6:48	0:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	22:13	2:34
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:27	2:34
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	2	21:11	1:26
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	2	19:43	2:36
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	17:25	2:35
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	16:48	1:13
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:00	1:25
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:44	1:26
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	10:53	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:16	0:00
A. Johansson	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	9:33	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	27:43	2:33
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	22:43	1:27
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	22:32	0:11
W. Wallinder	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:00	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	34	32	2	.941	57:35	Loss
M. Postava	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone13:46J. Eichel15:45B. Howden13:22

Line 2W. Karlsson13:28M. Marner15:41I. Barbashev13:30

Line 3T. Hertl9:42V. Olofsson9:44T. Connelly10:15

Line 4N. Dowd8:35M. Gatcomb8:04B. Bowman10:39

Pair 1B. McNabb16:48S. Theodore17:33

Pair 2N. Hanifin17:19D. Coghlan13:56

Pair 3R. Andersson16:31J. Lauzon13:02

DET

Line 1A. Copp15:27L. Raymond16:17M. Brandsegg-Nygård14:46

Line 2A. DeBrincat15:35E. Finnie15:33V. Arvidsson13:18

Line 3J. Compher11:36N. Danielson10:53M. Rasmussen10:19

Line 4K. Kolesar6:36C. Mazur6:48S. Dries5:50

Pair 1B. Chiarot19:19M. Seider19:36

Pair 2J. Faulk18:48W. Wallinder17:08

Pair 3A. Englund10:44A. Johansson9:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

14 of 21 overs hit (67%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+134	-150	5	Over
VGK J. Eichel	2.5	+105	-115	5	Over
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+108	-130	3	Over
VGK M. Marner	2.5	+150	-185	3	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-106	-111	4	Over
DET A. Copp	1.5	+120	-150	2	Over
DET B. Chiarot	1.5	-105	–	2	Over
VGK B. Howden	1.5	+130	-159	1	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-144	+115	2	Over
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	-120	–	2	Over
DET J. Faulk	1.5	+118	-145	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	+100	-110	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	1.5	-110	–	0	Under
DET M. Seider	1.5	-148	+115	2	Over
VGK M. Stone	1.5	-150	+120	0	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	1.5	-110	–	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	+120	-135	4	Over
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	+100	-110	3	Over
VGK T. Connelly	1.5	-110	+100	2	Over
VGK T. Hertl	1.5	-180	+140	2	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	1.5	-110	-114	0	Under

3 of 36 overs hit (8%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+440	-700	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
DET A. Englund	0.5	+2000	–	0	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1500	-5000	1	Over
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+550	-1200	1	Over
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+350	-550	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
VGK D. Coghlan	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+290	-370	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
VGK J. Lauzon	0.5	+1900	-10000	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
VGK M. Gatcomb	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+270	-320	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+625	-1400	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+190	-250	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
VGK N. Dowd	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+320	-550	1	Over
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+235	-285	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+210	-280	0	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+300	-390	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+1900	-5000	0	Under

3 of 18 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+295	-350	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+140	-160	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+190	-215	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	-125	+105	1	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+285	-295	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+250	-325	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	-118	-106	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+120	-140	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+270	-360	1	Over
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+240	-250	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+195	-235	1	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+200	-197	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+260	-300	0	Under

4 of 18 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-165	+145	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+155	-190	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	-110	-115	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	-230	+180	1	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+200	-200	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-160	+135	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+135	-170	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	-175	+150	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+100	-110	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	-170	+155	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+200	-235	1	Over
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+130	-140	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+120	-135	1	Over
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	-110	-105	1	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-125	+110	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under

0 of 17 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+250	-350	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+310	-450	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+525	-1000	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+145	-165	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+240	-325	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+175	-200	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+250	-350	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+200	-215	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+320	-375	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+250	-290	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+340	-450	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
VGK C. Hart	23.5	+100	-130	25	Over
DET D. Tarasov	23.5	-120	-102	32	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
VGK B. McNabb	2.5	+130	-185	0	Under
DET M. Seider	2.5	+120	-170	2	Under
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	-115	-120	2	Over
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	+125	-180	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, DET 3.1	VGK 2, DET 1
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	VGK 25.8, DET 27.6	VGK 34, DET 26
Win chance	VGK 51%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.3	5	0.98	0	37%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	2.8	4	0.87	0	33%	0
VGK J. Eichel	2.5	5	1.04	1	28%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.3	3	0.84	0	27%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.1	3	1.03	0	26%	0
DET M. Seider	1.9	2	0.60	0	9%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.9	2	0.62	1	25%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.9	0	0.93	0	31%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.9	0	0.61	0	23%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.8	2	0.56	0	24%	0
VGK T. Connelly	1.7	2	0.58	1	22%	1
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.7	0	0.48	0	20%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.7	3	0.54	0	11%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.6	3	0.42	1	19%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.6	4	0.39	1	11%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.6	1	0.55	0	25%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	2	0.51	0	17%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.5	0	0.42	0	9%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.4	2	0.17	0	6%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.4	0	0.35	0	16%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	2	0.56	0	19%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.2	0	0.29	0	6%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	0	0.39	0	15%	0
VGK M. Gatcomb	1.1	1	0.18	0	10%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.31	0	6%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.1	2	0.17	0	4%	0
DET S. Dries	1.1	1	0.18	1	11%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	1	0.15	0	4%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.0	4	0.36	1	14%	1
DET W. Wallinder	0.8	1	0.22	0	3%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	2	0.16	1	3%	1
DET C. Mazur	0.7	1	0.17	1	8%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.6	0	0.20	0	9%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.6	0	0.16	0	7%	0
DET A. Englund	0.5	1	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.