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Game Recap
VGK4
EDM2
VGK beat EDM 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.72 expected goals to 2.58. J. Eichel led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Holtz had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Hill stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| EDM | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 16:05VGKJ. Eichel0.27 xG
- 2nd 12:18EDMB. Kulak0.07 xG
- 2nd 15:56EDMZ. Hyman0.04 xG
- 3rd 10:05VGKN. HanifinPP0.04 xG
- 3rd 19:11VGKN. Hanifin0.21 xG
- 3rd 19:55VGKM. StoneEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
VGKEDM
35Shots on goal29
3.72Expected goals2.58
52Shot attempts57
285v5 shots on goal29
1/2Power play0/1
16Hits29
14Blocked shots8
2Penalty minutes4
3Giveaways8
1Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.72 xGEDM 2.58 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:01 | 3:28 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:19 | 3:12 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:02 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:01 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:08 | 3:31 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:20 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 2:33 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:32 | 0:40 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:08 | 2:53 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:31 | 0:05 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Hyman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:46 | 1:35 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:02 | 1:33 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 1:34 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:44 | 1:35 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:27 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:25 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:25 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:53 | 0:28 |
| B. Kulak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:28 | 0:26 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:36 | 1:32 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 34 | 31 | 3 | .912 | 59:20 | Loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.0, EDM 3.3 | VGK 4, EDM 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 26.2, EDM 31.4 | VGK 35, EDM 29 |
| Win chance | EDM 56% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.2 | 3 | 0.93 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.1 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.8 | 5 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 2.7 | 2 | 1.31 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 2 | 1.29 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.6 | 1 | 0.92 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.5 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.3 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.2 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.8 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.7 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.6 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 2 | 10% | 2 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 1 | 0.58 | 3 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.4 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.3 | 5 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.9 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.