EDM beat VGK 6-3, with the chances close: 4.20 expected goals to 4.42. VGK outshot EDM 42 to 34. L. Draisaitl led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Howden had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Skinner stopped 39 of 42.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| EDM | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 17:36EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.17 xG
- 2nd 1:13EDMZ. Hyman0.43 xG
- 2nd 6:53EDMC. Brown0.47 xG
- 2nd 10:46EDML. Draisaitl0.16 xG
- 2nd 12:53EDMC. Perry0.04 xG
- 2nd 15:35VGKV. Olofsson0.17 xG
- 2nd 16:01VGKI. Barbashev0.27 xG
- 3rd 1:00VGKB. HowdenSH0.03 xG
- 3rd 1:38EDMJ. Skinner0.24 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 4.42 xGEDM 4.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:25 | 1:44 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 1:44 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:44 | 1:42 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:44 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:16 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:16 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:16 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:18 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 23:07 | 1:44 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:38 | 0:16 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 34 | 28 | 6 | .824 | 56:18 | Loss |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 2:30 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 2:25 |
| C. Brown | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 2:26 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 2:27 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:33 |
| C. Perry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:37 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:38 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:21 | 0:36 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:03 | 0:39 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:51 | 2:24 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 42 | 39 | 3 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 2.9, EDM 3.4 | VGK 3, EDM 6 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 26.6, EDM 31.9 | VGK 42, EDM 34 |
| Win chance | EDM 57% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.3 | 2 | 1.56 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.2 | 5 | 0.98 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.0 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 5 | 1.27 | 3 | 41% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.4 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.3 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.3 | 4 | 0.41 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.1 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.0 | 1 | 0.78 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.0 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.8 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.7 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.7 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.3 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.2 | 4 | 0.32 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.