VGK beat EDM 5-1, with the chances close: 3.24 expected goals to 2.96. J. Eichel led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Nurse had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. Hart stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| EDM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 11:43VGKB. Howden0.41 xG
- 2nd 5:44VGKC. Sissons0.14 xG
- 2nd 8:05VGKJ. Lauzon0.22 xG
- 2nd 19:26EDME. Bouchard0.14 xG
- 3rd 4:04VGKM. Stone0.08 xG
- 3rd 16:13VGKR. AnderssonPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.24 xGEDM 2.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:08 | 2:58 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:51 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:57 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:37 | 2:51 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:36 | 2:13 |
| C. Sissons | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:24 | 1:24 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:46 | 2:52 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:11 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 2:51 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:59 | 0:22 |
| R. Andersson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:03 | 0:56 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:34 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:31 | 4:48 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 4:49 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:25 | 5:38 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 4:49 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:36 | 1:13 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:09 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:21 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Samanski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:10 | 5:37 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 1:12 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:24 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
EDM
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.2, EDM 3.2 | VGK 5, EDM 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 26.8, EDM 26.6 | VGK 33, EDM 32 |
| Win chance | EDM 51% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.1 | 5 | 1.56 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.0 | 2 | 1.06 | 3 | 31% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.3 | 4 | 0.96 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 2.0 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 1 | 1.01 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.8 | 4 | 0.92 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 1.7 | 5 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 0 | 0.55 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.3 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.1 | 4 | 0.35 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM J. Dickinson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM C. Murphy | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 2 | 3% | 1 |
| VGK C. Smith | 0.8 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK N. Dowd | 0.6 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM C. Lazar | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| EDM J. Samanski | 0.4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.