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Game Recap
VGK3
LAK6
LAK beat VGK 6-3, with the chances close: 2.25 expected goals to 2.29. A. Kopitar led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Thomas had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Kuemper stopped 23 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| LAK | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 13:58LAKW. Foegele0.03 xG
- 1st 14:40LAKA. Kempe0.04 xG
- 2nd 10:11LAKA. Laferriere0.14 xG
- 2nd 10:55LAKA. Kopitar0.16 xG
- 2nd 14:58VGKT. Pearson0.18 xG
- 3rd 6:23LAKK. FialaPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 8:03LAKJ. Edmundson0.02 xG
- 3rd 11:04VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 17:03VGKP. Dorofeyev0.03 xG
Team Stats
VGKLAK
26Shots on goal27
2.29Expected goals2.25
53Shot attempts48
225v5 shots on goal24
1/3Power play1/1
21Hits27
7Blocked shots10
9Penalty minutes13
16Giveaways8
11Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 2.29 xGLAK 2.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 2:19 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:03 | 2:24 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:04 | 2:55 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 2:39 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 2:49 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:09 | 2:04 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:22 | 2:36 |
| B. Brisson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:19 | 2:13 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 21:54 | 2:46 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 21:46 | 2:10 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 27 | 21 | 6 | .778 | 60:00 | Loss |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kopitar | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:52 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:21 | 0:52 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:52 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:52 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:52 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 21:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 20:23 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.3, LAK 2.9 | VGK 3, LAK 6 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 28.0, LAK 30.0 | VGK 26, LAK 27 |
| Win chance | VGK 56% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.4 | 1 | 1.02 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.9 | 3 | 0.80 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.4 | 2 | 0.73 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.3 | 4 | 0.58 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.0 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 3 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.9 | 0 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.74 | 3 | 23% | 1 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK A. Thomas | 1.3 | 5 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| VGK B. Brisson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Englund | 0.5 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.