Game Recap: VGK 3, LAK 2 (OT), January 14, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK3

Final/OTWed, Jan 14, 2026Every game that night

LAK2

VGK beat LAK 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.17 expected goals to 2.44. J. Eichel led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). A. Schmid stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	0	1	1	1	3
LAK	0	0	2	0	2

2nd 3:56VGKB. Bowman0.17 xG
3rd 6:24LAKK. Fiala0.52 xG
3rd 12:07VGKM. MarnerPP0.13 xG
3rd 18:33LAKB. Clarke0.07 xG
OT 0:25VGKM. Stone0.27 xG

Team Stats

VGKLAK

27Shots on goal24

2.17Expected goals2.44

42Shot attempts61

245v5 shots on goal19

1/2Power play0/1

20Hits24

20Blocked shots13

2Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways20

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.17 xGLAK 2.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK26 on goal, 3 scored

LAK24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	3	3	4	1	2	+1	2	19:01	2:19
M. Stone	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	19:58	2:11
M. Marner	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	0	16:35	2:07
B. Bowman	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:46	0:00
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:21	0:04
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:02	2:08
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:34	2:15
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:02	0:08
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	12:59	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:04	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:54	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	23:37	0:12
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	21:59	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	-1	0	21:03	0:11
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	20:44	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	15:56	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	13:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	24	22	2	.917	60:19	Win
C. Lindbom	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	1	1	2	3	0	2	+1	2	22:25	1:35
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	2	19:33	1:17
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	17:44	1:13
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	14:47	0:20
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	20:32	1:15
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	20:28	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:53	0:20
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:31	0:18
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:18	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	0	6	1	-1	0	12:08	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	9:22	0:00
B. Clarke	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	+2	0	19:34	1:15
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	23:29	0:22
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:11	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	18:51	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:21	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:15	0:00
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	27	24	3	.889	60:12	OT loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone16:23J. Eichel15:58I. Barbashev17:39

Line 2M. Marner13:43P. Dorofeyev13:54R. Smith12:45

Line 3T. Hertl13:13K. Kolesar13:15B. Bowman13:40

Line 4C. Reinhardt12:04A. Holtz10:54C. Sissons12:23

Pair 1S. Theodore21:31J. Lauzon20:56

Pair 2N. Hanifin19:36Z. Whitecloud19:55

Pair 3B. Hutton13:05K. Korczak15:56

LAK

Line 1A. Kempe17:15A. Laferriere18:42J. Malott13:18

Line 2K. Fiala20:06A. Kuzmenko16:18A. Turcotte14:05

Line 3W. Foegele14:31Q. Byfield16:57T. Ward14:13

Line 4A. Lee12:08S. Helenius9:22

Pair 1D. Doughty21:57M. Anderson20:31

Pair 2B. Dumoulin16:13C. Ceci15:31

Pair 3B. Clarke18:06J. Edmundson17:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.9, LAK 2.8	VGK 3, LAK 2
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	VGK 26.5, LAK 25.5	VGK 27, LAK 24
Win chance	VGK 52%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.1	4	1.00	3	29%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.7	3	0.81	2	31%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.6	4	0.87	1	33%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	1	0.59	0	27%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.4	3	0.54	0	21%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	2	0.64	0	24%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.2	1	0.47	0	21%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	0	0.70	0	22%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	3	0.88	2	26%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	0	0.40	0	7%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	2	0.54	1	8%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	4	1.00	1	25%	1
LAK B. Clarke	1.8	3	0.46	1	9%	1
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.5	1	0.63	1	25%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	2	0.47	0	11%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.4	2	0.36	1	12%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	0	0.39	0	16%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.3	0	0.24	0	12%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.3	2	0.23	0	6%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.3	1	0.51	0	18%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.2	2	0.18	0	10%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.1	2	0.32	1	11%	1
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.23	0	4%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.0	1	0.34	0	11%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	0	0.15	0	3%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	3	0.22	0	9%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	2	0.25	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	0	0.24	0	9%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	0	0.23	0	5%	0
LAK A. Lee	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.7	1	0.15	0	7%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	2	0.20	0	3%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	0	0.14	0	8%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.4	0	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.