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Game Recap
VGK3
MIN2
VGK beat MIN 3-2, with the chances close: 1.75 expected goals to 2.22. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Johansson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. I. Samsonov stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 1:30MINK. Kaprizov0.17 xG
- 1st 9:31VGKV. OlofssonPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 6:04VGKS. Theodore0.20 xG
- 2nd 16:56MINK. Kaprizov0.08 xG
- 3rd 3:49VGKV. Olofsson0.04 xG
Team Stats
VGKMIN
27Shots on goal22
1.75Expected goals2.22
57Shot attempts50
265v5 shots on goal22
1/1Power play0/1
20Hits13
16Blocked shots17
7Penalty minutes7
22Giveaways13
9Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 1.75 xGMIN 2.22 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:07 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:07 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:48 | 0:07 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:07 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:30 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:07 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:31 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 28:03 | 0:50 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:40 | 0:50 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:19 | 0:50 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:01 | 0:50 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 13:57 | 0:50 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:50 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Dermott | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 57:42 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.1, MIN 3.1 | VGK 3, MIN 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 29.3, MIN 30.0 | VGK 27, MIN 22 |
| Win chance | MIN 50% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.5 | 6 | 1.27 | 2 | 45% | 2 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.2 | 1 | 0.98 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.1 | 0 | 0.85 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.4 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.2 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 3 | 0.69 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.0 | 5 | 0.61 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.8 | 5 | 0.48 | 2 | 24% | 2 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.8 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 1.7 | 0 | 0.66 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.7 | 5 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 1.0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN T. Dermott | 0.5 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.