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Game Recap
VGK5
MIN1
VGK beat MIN 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.21 expected goals to 1.53. VGK outshot MIN 38 to 24. J. Eichel scored three for VGK. P. Dorofeyev had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Hill stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 6:23VGKJ. Eichel0.18 xG
- 2nd 8:22VGKB. Howden0.19 xG
- 3rd 1:42MINM. Johansson0.16 xG
- 3rd 14:57VGKJ. EichelPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 16:57VGKT. PearsonEN0.59 xG
- 3rd 17:28VGKJ. Eichel0.07 xG
Team Stats
VGKMIN
38Shots on goal24
3.21Expected goals1.53
58Shot attempts48
355v5 shots on goal24
1/1Power play0/1
21Hits24
9Blocked shots14
0Penalty minutes2
15Giveaways9
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.21 xGMIN 1.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:13 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:13 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:13 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:13 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:13 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:31 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:06 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:46 | 1:06 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:52 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 18:16 | 1:56 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:20 | 0:38 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:08 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:54 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 1:13 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:15 | 0:47 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:18 | 0:04 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:48 | 1:22 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 37 | 33 | 4 | .892 | 59:46 | Loss |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.4, MIN 2.6 | VGK 5, MIN 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 30.7, MIN 25.8 | VGK 38, MIN 24 |
| Win chance | VGK 62% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.0 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 2.8 | 6 | 0.98 | 3 | 29% | 3 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.5 | 6 | 0.58 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.3 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.2 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.2 | 0 | 0.74 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.8 | 3 | 0.83 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.7 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN B. Gaunce | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.