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Game Recap
VGK2
MIN5
MIN beat VGK 5-2, with the chances close: 2.72 expected goals to 3.12. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Eriksson Ek had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. F. Gustavsson stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| MIN | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 3:13MINK. KaprizovPP0.11 xG
- 1st 6:51MINM. Rossi0.15 xG
- 1st 10:48VGKA. Pietrangelo0.04 xG
- 2nd 11:05MINM. Boldy0.14 xG
- 2nd 19:58MINK. KaprizovPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 11:34VGKR. SmithSH0.12 xG
- 3rd 18:27MINM. FolignoEN0.69 xG
Team Stats
VGKMIN
32Shots on goal31
3.12Expected goals2.72
74Shot attempts46
205v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play2/4
42Hits26
7Blocked shots23
8Penalty minutes10
7Giveaways12
1Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.12 xGMIN 2.72 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:37 |
| R. Smith | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:44 | 7:18 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:23 | 7:35 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 7:35 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:46 | 6:53 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:25 | 1:24 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:25 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:56 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:01 | 0:05 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:05 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:54 | 6:34 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:06 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:53 | 0:05 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:26 | 1:21 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:49 | 0:05 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:03 | 4:26 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:09 | 4:53 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:52 | 1:06 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 15:41 | 2:15 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 13:34 | 0:19 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:41 | 3:59 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:33 | 4:49 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:04 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:58 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 1:40 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:37 | 5:15 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:31 | 0:19 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:27 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:44 | 0:40 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 59:41 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.2, MIN 2.7 | VGK 2, MIN 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 29.7, MIN 25.0 | VGK 32, MIN 31 |
| Win chance | VGK 59% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.5 | 6 | 1.19 | 2 | 42% | 2 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.3 | 5 | 0.94 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.2 | 6 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.0 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 2.8 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.2 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.0 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.8 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.8 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.4 | 4 | 0.47 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.