VGK beat MIN 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.13 expected goals to 2.79. VGK outshot MIN 46 to 32. T. Hertl led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Theodore had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. A. Hill stopped 29 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 6:47VGKS. TheodorePP0.04 xG
- 1st 10:43MINM. Rossi0.12 xG
- 2nd 1:24MINM. Foligno0.15 xG
- 3rd 4:50VGKN. RoyPP0.20 xG
- 3rd 10:03VGKT. Hertl0.14 xG
- 3rd 10:57MINJ. Spurgeon0.13 xG
- OT 17:26VGKI. Barbashev0.28 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 4.13 xGMIN 2.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:14 | 5:55 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:39 | 2:39 |
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:58 | 2:49 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 29:57 | 7:08 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:42 | 4:38 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:32 | 5:08 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:18 | 3:21 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:25 | 1:28 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 30:41 | 6:48 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 28:48 | 1:10 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 26:05 | 1:46 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28:12 | 3:31 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 27:25 | 3:24 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 | 3:11 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:38 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:24 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33:08 | 3:22 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:57 | 0:49 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:12 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28:40 | 1:20 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 33:07 | 0:52 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 31:32 | 0:29 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 0 | 29:17 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 13:33 | 1:48 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 46 | 42 | 4 | .913 | 77:26 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.2, MIN 2.7 | VGK 4, MIN 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 29.8, MIN 25.3 | VGK 46, MIN 32 |
| Win chance | VGK 58% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.5 | 2 | 1.20 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.4 | 3 | 0.97 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.3 | 4 | 0.71 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.1 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.0 | 6 | 0.96 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.2 | 3 | 0.65 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 5 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.1 | 5 | 0.52 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.9 | 6 | 0.66 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.9 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 3 | 0.56 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.3 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.