Game Recap: VGK 2, MIN 3 (OT), November 16, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK2

Final/OTSun, Nov 16, 2025Every game that night

MIN3

MIN beat VGK 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 1.68 expected goals to 1.77. M. Zuccarello led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). K. Kaprizov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. F. Gustavsson stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	1	0	1	0	2
MIN	1	1	0	1	3

1st 4:49MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.03 xG
1st 15:14VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.27 xG
2nd 9:05MINY. Trenin0.06 xG
3rd 6:35VGKR. SmithPP0.02 xG
OT 4:50MINK. KaprizovPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

VGKMIN

25Shots on goal28

1.77Expected goals1.68

53Shot attempts44

195v5 shots on goal19

2/4Power play1/4

15Hits31

11Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways15

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 1.77 xGMIN 1.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK24 on goal, 2 scored

MIN25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:16	4:55
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	19:16	4:54
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:49	4:55
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	15:59	1:06
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	-1	0	14:06	1:05
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	23:00	4:55
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	19:05	4:55
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:54	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:04	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:43	1:06
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:30	0:01
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	9:51	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	27:14	1:06
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	26:24	1:07
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	23:34	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	20:08	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	2	9:53	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	7:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindbom	28	25	3	.893	64:50	OT loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	2	2	3	1	2	+1	0	21:13	4:53
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	2	24:32	3:55
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	23:47	4:33
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	4	21:42	4:36
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	16:48	1:29
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	13:09	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	+1	0	12:42	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	0	6	2	+1	0	12:37	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:30	2:02
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:10	1:06
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	9:55	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:04	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	27:35	2:47
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	25:21	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	22:06	1:22
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	20:06	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:55	2:53
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	25	23	2	.920	64:50	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1B. Bowman14:10J. Eichel13:16I. Barbashev13:33

Line 2T. Hertl12:29M. Marner12:13P. Dorofeyev11:48

Line 3B. Saad11:57B. Howden11:47R. Smith11:30

Line 4K. Kolesar10:29C. Sissons10:27C. Reinhardt9:51

Pair 1B. McNabb20:16S. Theodore21:10

Pair 2Z. Whitecloud18:30N. Hanifin19:57

Pair 3B. Hutton7:44K. Korczak8:48

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello15:08K. Kaprizov16:55R. Hartman10:28

Line 2J. Ek14:38M. Boldy13:51M. Johansson12:16

Line 3Y. Trenin10:14D. Yurov13:09M. Foligno9:24

Line 4B. Jones9:44L. Ohgren10:04V. Hinostroza8:04

Pair 1J. Brodin20:54B. Faber19:30

Pair 2J. Spurgeon16:55J. Middleton17:37

Pair 3Z. Buium11:30D. Hunt9:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, MIN 2.7	VGK 2, MIN 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	VGK 29.5, MIN 26.1	VGK 25, MIN 28
Win chance	VGK 56%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.3	6	1.16	1	42%	1
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	4	1.03	0	31%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.1	3	0.64	1	33%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	3	0.90	1	32%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.0	3	0.69	1	26%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	3	0.73	1	29%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.2	1	0.65	1	9%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.1	3	0.48	0	10%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	1	0.47	0	20%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	3	0.78	2	22%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	2	1.10	1	28%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.6	0	0.36	0	18%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	1	0.33	0	8%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	0	0.45	1	16%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.57	1	21%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.4	1	0.22	0	4%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	1	0.40	1	15%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	2	0.37	0	9%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	1	0.39	0	18%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.26	0	4%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	1	0.29	0	6%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	0	0.24	0	3%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	2	0.20	1	11%	1
MIN Z. Buium	1.1	0	0.33	0	6%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	0	0.29	1	14%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.0	1	0.16	0	8%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	3	0.21	0	5%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
MIN D. Yurov	0.9	0	0.19	1	11%	0
VGK C. Sissons	0.9	1	0.21	0	8%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	1	0.05	0	5%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	2	0.23	0	9%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.6	2	0.14	0	8%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.