Game Recap: VGK 2, MIN 4, October 12, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK2

FinalMon, Oct 12, 2026Every game that night

MIN4

MIN beat VGK 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.81 expected goals to 2.84. Q. Hughes led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Wallstedt stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	1	1	2
MIN	3	0	1	4

1st 11:50MINM. Boldy0.19 xG
1st 14:32MINM. ShabanovPP0.05 xG
1st 16:57MIND. Yurov0.17 xG
2nd 2:37VGKR. Andersson0.05 xG
3rd 9:25VGKW. Karlsson0.18 xG
3rd 18:38MINJ. Eriksson EkEN0.80 xG

Team Stats

VGKMIN

23Shots on goal28

2.84Expected goals4.81

64Shot attempts63

185v5 shots on goal19

0/5Power play1/1

19Hits18

16Blocked shots19

7Penalty minutes13

11Giveaways13

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.84 xGMIN 4.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK23 on goal, 2 scored

MIN28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	21:30	7:41
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	0	18:53	7:45
W. Karlsson	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	-1	0	17:11	0:59
B. Howden	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	15:18	0:00
R. Lavoie	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	10:53	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	21:24	7:57
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:03	7:42
T. Connelly	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:32	7:40
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:17	0:56
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:20	1:14
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	11:38	0:14
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	9:43	0:14
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	-1	0	17:23	0:58
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:24	1:56
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-2	0	22:04	0:14
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	17:37	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	5	13:09	0:00
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	2	12:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	27	24	3	.889	58:16	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	3	3	1	+2	0	21:23	0:17
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	19:40	0:17
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	19:34	0:17
M. Shabanov	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	-2	0	14:07	0:17
D. Yurov	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	4	10:41	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	10:20	0:00
R. Lorenz	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	5	9:00	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	4	17:34	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	3	4	3	0	0	16:58	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	15:19	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	12:34	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:20	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	22:36	0:17
O. Maatta	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	+1	0	25:16	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	23:32	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	21:02	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:41	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1B. Howden14:51M. Marner13:30W. Karlsson15:36

Line 2M. Stone12:02J. Eichel13:05I. Barbashev15:54

Line 3N. Dowd11:07M. Gatcomb9:29B. Bowman12:39

Line 4R. Lavoie10:50T. Hertl10:46T. Connelly10:22

Pair 1B. McNabb17:20S. Theodore19:52

Pair 2N. Hanifin21:23R. Andersson15:58

Pair 3D. Coghlan12:05J. Lauzon13:06

MIN

Line 1J. Ek17:00K. Kaprizov19:03M. Boldy15:44

Line 2R. Hartman14:49M. Shabanov13:47B. Coleman14:24

Line 3M. McCarron10:19Y. Trenin10:40N. Sturm3:20

Line 4D. Yurov10:41R. Lorenz9:00B. Brink10:17

Pair 1Q. Hughes22:19J. Spurgeon18:01

Pair 2O. Maatta19:44J. Brodin16:52

Pair 3Z. Bogosian11:30D. Hunt12:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 15 overs hit (40%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+130	-145	4	Over
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	+120	-155	3	Under
VGK J. Eichel	2.5	-155	+130	2	Under
MIN J. Ek	2.5	+108	-125	3	Over
VGK M. Marner	2.5	+142	-175	2	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	+135	-160	2	Under
VGK T. Connelly	2.5	+125	-155	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	1.5	-165	+135	1	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	+120	-125	1	Under
VGK M. Stone	1.5	-178	+150	2	Over
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	-144	–	4	Over
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	-140	+120	2	Over
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	-114	-105	1	Under
VGK T. Hertl	1.5	-165	+135	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	1.5	-145	+120	3	Over

6 of 33 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+320	-500	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+390	-650	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	+3000	-5000	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+500	-1000	1	Over
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+220	-275	1	Over
VGK J. Lauzon	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+135	-175	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+160	-210	1	Over
VGK M. Gatcomb	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+400	-650	1	Over
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+210	-285	0	Under
VGK N. Dowd	0.5	+800	-2500	0	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
MIN N. Sturm	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+650	-1600	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+390	-650	0	Under
VGK R. Lavoie	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+360	-450	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+260	-370	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+450	-650	1	Over
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under

5 of 18 overs hit (28%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+380	-550	1	Over
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	-135	+100	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+180	-195	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+105	-135	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+115	-135	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+110	-120	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+225	-310	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+124	-155	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-130	+120	2	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+275	-350	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+225	-320	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+175	-215	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
VGK J. Eichel	1.5	+180	-240	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	1.5	+200	-230	1	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+145	-175	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+180	-230	1	Over
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+140	-145	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-135	+110	1	Over
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+195	-225	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-190	+180	1	Over
VGK M. Marner	0.5	-170	+160	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+125	-155	1	Over
VGK M. Stone	0.5	-150	+135	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-180	+160	2	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+144	-165	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+125	-150	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	-120	-105	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+145	-165	1	Over

2 of 18 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+325	-425	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+195	-215	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+130	-170	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+270	-500	1	Over
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+200	-200	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+275	-300	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+230	-350	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
MIN J. Wallstedt	26.5	-105	-120	21	Under
VGK C. Hart	23.5	-114	-105	24	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
VGK B. McNabb	1.5	-180	+130	1	Under
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	-195	+140	1	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	-135	-105	3	Over
MIN O. Maatta	1.5	-140	+100	4	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, MIN 3.1	VGK 2, MIN 4
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	VGK 29.2, MIN 28.1	VGK 23, MIN 28
Win chance	VGK 50%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	3	1.01	1	36%	1
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.0	4	1.16	1	43%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	2	1.12	0	30%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.9	3	0.73	1	27%	1
VGK M. Marner	2.4	2	1.06	1	29%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.2	2	1.02	2	14%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	2	0.92	0	29%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	0	0.61	1	23%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.1	1	0.46	0	21%	0
VGK T. Connelly	2.0	0	0.36	0	13%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	3	0.56	1	21%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	2	0.49	0	21%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	1	0.62	0	13%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.7	4	0.37	1	10%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	1	0.56	0	20%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.5	0	0.35	0	8%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	3	0.44	1	21%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.4	0	0.15	0	3%	0
MIN M. Shabanov	1.3	3	0.44	1	15%	1
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	3	0.26	0	12%	0
VGK M. Gatcomb	1.2	0	0.17	0	9%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.2	0	0.36	0	12%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.2	0	0.37	1	14%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	2	0.29	0	6%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	1	0.35	0	8%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	2	0.14	0	4%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	2	0.24	0	11%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	1	0.31	1	13%	1
MIN O. Maatta	0.9	2	0.32	1	5%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
VGK R. Lavoie	0.8	1	0.08	1	5%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.8	0	0.22	0	10%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.7	0	0.15	0	3%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.