Game Recap: VGK 6, MTL 2, November 23, 2024

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Game Recap

VGK6

FinalSat, Nov 23, 2024Every game that night

MTL2

VGK beat MTL 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.90 expected goals to 2.04. VGK outshot MTL 28 to 17. J. Eichel led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Burke had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Hill stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	5	1	6
MTL	0	0	2	2

2nd 4:39VGKT. Hertl0.17 xG
2nd 8:18VGKC. Burke0.23 xG
2nd 9:09VGKI. Barbashev0.11 xG
2nd 10:35VGKT. Pearson0.17 xG
2nd 17:02VGKK. Kolesar0.17 xG
3rd 2:03MTLE. HeinemanPP0.08 xG
3rd 13:03MTLJ. Struble0.21 xG
3rd 18:12VGKJ. Eichel0.12 xG

Team Stats

VGKMTL

28Shots on goal17

2.90Expected goals2.04

46Shot attempts58

255v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play1/2

19Hits40

17Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes2

19Giveaways20

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.90 xGMTL 2.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK28 on goal, 6 scored

MTL17 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	2	3	3	0	0	+3	0	21:29	3:22
I. Barbashev	LW	1	2	3	1	0	0	+3	0	16:13	0:38
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	+2	0	16:12	3:11
C. Burke	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	+3	0	12:46	0:08
K. Kolesar	RW	1	0	1	3	2	1	+2	0	12:15	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:00	0:09
T. Pearson	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:55	0:04
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	16:58	3:12
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:42	0:44
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	16:41	3:07
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	15:40	0:40
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:47	0:34
S. Theodore	D	0	2	2	3	0	3	+4	2	23:26	3:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	2	2	0	0	4	+2	0	20:16	1:02
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+3	0	23:04	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	+2	0	18:28	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	16:06	0:09
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	17	15	2	.882	60:00	Win
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Gallagher	RW	0	2	2	3	2	1	0	0	15:16	1:18
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	14:30	1:19
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	0	5	0	+1	0	14:13	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	1	4	1	-1	0	10:59	1:17
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	19:16	2:34
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	16:32	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	16:26	2:34
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-4	0	16:22	2:36
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	15:47	1:19
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	15:30	2:35
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	5	2	-1	0	15:28	0:00
L. Condotta	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	9:36	0:00
J. Struble	D	1	0	1	1	2	1	-1	0	14:42	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	25:35	2:42
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-3	0	21:28	1:11
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	21:06	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	18:53	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	2	14:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	25	20	5	.800	39:42	Loss
C. Primeau	3	2	1	.667	20:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.5, MTL 2.8	VGK 6, MTL 2
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	VGK 31.6, MTL 26.7	VGK 28, MTL 17
Win chance	VGK 61%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.8	3	1.20	3	36%	1
MTL C. Caufield	2.8	1	0.68	0	30%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.7	3	0.67	0	32%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.2	3	0.80	2	11%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.2	1	0.73	0	25%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	2	0.84	0	27%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.0	3	0.68	1	26%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	2.0	3	0.44	2	19%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.0	0	0.69	0	11%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.9	1	0.62	0	21%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	0	0.57	2	11%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.8	1	0.51	0	16%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.7	0	0.37	1	17%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.7	0	0.58	0	18%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	1	0.68	3	23%	1
VGK A. Holtz	1.6	0	0.38	0	16%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	0	0.33	1	17%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	0	0.42	0	17%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	1	0.38	0	18%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	1	0.32	1	5%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.3	1	0.34	1	13%	1
VGK K. Kolesar	1.2	3	0.36	1	15%	1
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	1	0.35	0	7%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.2	1	0.40	0	14%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	1	0.31	0	3%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.1	1	0.19	0	5%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	1	0.18	0	4%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	1	0.43	0	13%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.1	1	0.24	1	12%	1
MTL L. Hutson	1.0	2	0.51	0	4%	0
VGK C. Burke	1.0	4	0.18	1	10%	1
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	1	0.24	1	7%	0
MTL L. Condotta	1.0	1	0.21	0	11%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.9	1	0.17	1	3%	1
VGK C. Schwindt	0.8	0	0.25	1	8%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.8	1	0.30	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.