Game Recap: VGK 2, MTL 3 (OT), January 27, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK2

Final/OTTue, Jan 27, 2026Every game that night

MTL3

MTL beat VGK 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.73 expected goals to 4.32. VGK outshot MTL 34 to 26. P. Dorofeyev led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). P. Dorofeyev had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. J. Dobes stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	1	0	1	0	2
MTL	0	2	0	1	3

1st 8:38VGKP. Dorofeyev0.09 xG
2nd 4:24MTLP. Danault0.06 xG
2nd 8:55MTLC. Caufield0.38 xG
3rd 16:52VGKP. Dorofeyev0.03 xG
OT 3:58MTLJ. Evans0.27 xG

Team Stats

VGKMTL

34Shots on goal26

4.32Expected goals3.73

62Shot attempts61

235v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play0/4

24Hits24

15Blocked shots18

8Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways8

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.32 xGMTL 3.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK33 on goal, 2 scored

MTL24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dorofeyev	RW	2	0	2	8	0	0	+2	0	19:16	4:34
B. Bowman	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+2	0	15:26	1:23
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	26:00	4:55
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	23:00	4:37
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+2	0	22:26	4:44
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	18:54	4:40
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	16:20	1:21
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	15:13	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:44	0:00
T. Laczynski	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:27	1:04
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	5:33	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	5:18	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	13:14	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	24:19	1:16
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	5	0	3	0	2	22:49	1:26
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	22:22	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	6	2	-1	0	20:51	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	15:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	26	23	3	.885	63:58	OT loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	2	19:27	6:03
J. Evans	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	19:23	0:03
A. Texier	LW	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	0	16:45	1:48
P. Danault	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:12	0:03
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	12:12	1:23
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	19:17	5:59
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:54	6:13
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:23	5:47
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	15:16	1:52
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:05	0:03
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	12:34	0:03
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:04	1:55
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	24:25	0:26
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	+2	0	20:41	1:17
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	2	25:04	5:38
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-2	0	21:23	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	4	3	0	0	19:42	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	8:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	34	32	2	.941	63:47	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone14:18J. Eichel15:43R. Smith14:05

Line 2T. Hertl12:57I. Barbashev14:48K. Kolesar11:58

Line 3P. Dorofeyev14:10B. Bowman14:03M. Marner13:28

Line 4C. Reinhardt5:33A. Holtz5:18T. Laczynski5:23

Pair 1N. Hanifin17:34R. Andersson17:36

Pair 2S. Theodore17:45J. Lauzon15:25

Pair 3B. Hutton13:11K. Korczak13:05

MTL

Line 1J. Evans14:02K. Dach13:51Z. Bolduc10:38

Line 2C. Caufield13:18N. Suzuki11:38A. Texier13:48

Line 3J. Slafkovský10:55O. Kapanen11:20I. Demidov9:52

Line 4B. Gallagher10:09P. Danault11:03J. Anderson10:52

Pair 1M. Matheson18:18N. Dobson16:21

Pair 2L. Hutson17:46K. Guhle16:57

Pair 3A. Carrier17:21A. Xhekaj8:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.3, MTL 3.1	VGK 2, MTL 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	VGK 26.7, MTL 24.7	VGK 34, MTL 26
Win chance	VGK 53%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.2	3	1.18	0	32%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.8	5	0.85	1	34%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	8	0.71	2	33%	2
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	1	0.79	0	29%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	4	1.04	0	30%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	1	0.95	0	27%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.9	5	0.47	0	11%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.9	0	0.55	1	11%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	1	0.72	0	24%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	1	0.63	0	10%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	4	1.08	0	27%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.7	1	0.50	0	21%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.7	2	0.44	0	8%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.6	2	0.50	1	19%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	1	0.35	0	15%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.5	1	0.85	0	20%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.4	2	0.44	1	9%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	1	0.62	0	22%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	2	0.87	0	10%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.3	1	0.41	0	17%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	1	0.38	1	17%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.2	3	0.42	1	13%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	0	0.32	0	16%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.2	1	0.37	0	14%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.1	1	0.42	1	15%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.1	2	0.22	1	6%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.1	0	0.24	0	11%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.1	1	0.18	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	0	0.30	0	11%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.0	1	0.25	0	6%	0
VGK T. Laczynski	1.0	0	0.20	0	10%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.9	0	0.25	0	4%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	1	0.28	0	5%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
MTL J. Evans	0.8	3	0.32	1	10%	1
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	0	0.08	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.