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Game Recap
VGK3
NSH5
NSH beat VGK 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.05 expected goals to 1.77. P. Dorofeyev scored three for VGK. J. Annunen stopped 19 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| NSH | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 9:44NSHS. Stamkos0.54 xG
- 1st 12:06NSHF. Forsberg0.02 xG
- 2nd 5:29NSHJ. Barron0.05 xG
- 2nd 8:41NSHS. Stamkos0.10 xG
- 2nd 9:12VGKP. Dorofeyev0.18 xG
- 2nd 14:02VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 15:20VGKP. Dorofeyev0.07 xG
- 3rd 19:58NSHR. O'ReillyEN0.82 xG
Team Stats
VGKNSH
22Shots on goal23
1.77Expected goals4.05
48Shot attempts54
175v5 shots on goal20
1/2Power play0/1
18Hits18
19Blocked shots14
2Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways33
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 1.77 xGNSH 4.05 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:59 | 1:34 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:06 | 1:32 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:35 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:39 | 1:32 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 1:35 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:14 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:33 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:21 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:19 | 1:14 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:28 | 0:32 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:53 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 58:28 | Loss |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stamkos | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:00 | 2:00 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:00 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:07 | 2:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +4 | 0 | 24:33 | 2:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.2, NSH 2.7 | VGK 3, NSH 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 30.5, NSH 28.9 | VGK 22, NSH 23 |
| Win chance | VGK 57% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.4 | 1 | 1.07 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.4 | 2 | 0.93 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.1 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.7 | 0 | 0.81 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 4 | 0.54 | 3 | 26% | 3 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.3 | 3 | 0.78 | 3 | 31% | 2 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.2 | 1 | 0.60 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.54 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.1 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.9 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.8 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.8 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.4 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH V. Hinostroza | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.6 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.