Game Recap: VGK 3, NSH 1, March 29, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK3

FinalSat, Mar 29, 2025Every game that night

NSH1

VGK beat NSH 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.06 expected goals to 1.44. J. Eichel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Barron had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Hill stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	1	2	3
NSH	0	1	0	1

2nd 5:53NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.08 xG
2nd 8:26VGKJ. Eichel0.65 xG
3rd 6:25VGKR. SmithPP0.79 xG
3rd 19:15VGKB. HowdenEN0.79 xG

Team Stats

VGKNSH

29Shots on goal24

4.06Expected goals1.44

47Shot attempts45

265v5 shots on goal21

1/1Power play1/1

19Hits31

13Blocked shots8

2Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways17

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.06 xGNSH 1.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK29 on goal, 3 scored

NSH24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+2	0	18:28	1:09
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	18:08	0:43
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:46	1:09
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:59	0:43
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	13:52	0:43
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:33	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:32	1:09
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:40	0:43
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:31	0:00
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	2	14:59	1:09
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:40	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:23	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	17:59	0:43
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	22:03	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	22:01	1:09
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:58	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:19	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+2	0	18:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	18:33	0:06
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	-2	0	17:42	0:06
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:51	0:00
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	18:11	0:06
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:16	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:21	0:06
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	15:29	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	14:44	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	13:46	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:14	0:00
K. Bellows	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	12:01	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3:35	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	20:40	0:06
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	23:57	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	20:37	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	2	20:25	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:05	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	28	26	2	.929	58:41	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJonathan Marchessault NSH Faces VGK, his team until May 20241 SOG
Old teamNicolas Hague NSH Faces VGK, his team until May 20251 SOG
BirthdayBrett Howden VGK Turns 27 that day1 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.2, NSH 2.9	VGK 3, NSH 1
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	VGK 28.1, NSH 28.4	VGK 29, NSH 24
Win chance	VGK 53%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	1	0.93	1	35%	0
VGK J. Eichel	2.7	2	0.94	2	27%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	2	0.55	0	26%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.4	1	0.69	0	29%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	1	0.78	0	32%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.1	1	0.50	0	19%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.0	0	0.47	0	13%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.9	4	0.57	0	19%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	1	0.66	1	24%	1
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	3	0.57	0	22%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.8	3	0.82	1	23%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	1	0.69	2	12%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.6	0	0.43	0	19%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.6	3	0.50	0	12%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.5	0	0.41	1	19%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	4	0.45	1	15%	1
NSH M. Gaizo	1.4	2	0.24	0	4%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	1	0.29	1	8%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	2	0.57	1	19%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	2	0.36	0	16%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	1	0.39	1	17%	1
VGK N. Roy	1.3	2	0.40	0	14%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.3	1	0.30	0	12%	0
NSH K. Bellows	1.2	1	0.27	0	11%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	0	0.25	0	12%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.2	1	0.20	0	6%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.2	3	0.25	0	10%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.2	4	0.26	0	9%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.33	0	12%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.0	1	0.22	0	9%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	0	0.24	0	8%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	1	0.27	0	3%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	1	0.30	0	11%	0
VGK B. McNabb	0.9	1	0.26	0	5%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.6	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NSH A. Englund	0.5	1	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.