Game Recap: VGK 1, NSH 4, March 21, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK1

FinalSat, Mar 21, 2026Every game that night

NSH4

NSH beat VGK 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.93 expected goals to 3.66. VGK outshot NSH 40 to 20. S. Stamkos led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Smith had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Annunen stopped 39 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	1	0	1
NSH	1	3	0	4

1st 0:40NSHS. Stamkos0.03 xG
2nd 1:24NSHS. StamkosPP0.10 xG
2nd 11:56NSHT. JostSH0.25 xG
2nd 13:10VGKS. TheodorePP0.05 xG
2nd 14:53NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.17 xG

Team Stats

VGKNSH

40Shots on goal20

3.66Expected goals2.93

77Shot attempts39

325v5 shots on goal12

1/4Power play2/4

13Hits13

8Blocked shots15

12Penalty minutes12

13Giveaways14

2Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.66 xGNSH 2.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK40 on goal, 1 scored

NSH20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	14:59	1:45
B. Howden	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	12:14	1:35
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	21:54	6:04
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	21:43	5:54
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	20:49	5:56
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:45	5:46
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	20:21	5:54
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	14:38	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:00	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:22	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	11:20	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:14	1:37
S. Theodore	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	4	19:45	1:27
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:25	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	18:38	1:37
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	18:34	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	15:20	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	12:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	20	16	4	.800	55:12	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	2	1	3	2	0	0	+1	2	17:39	4:22
R. O'Reilly	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	+1	2	19:06	3:24
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	20:19	4:22
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:05	4:22
T. Jost	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	14:20	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	16:29	2:21
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	15:15	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	14:39	1:34
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:18	0:11
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:45	1:34
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8:16	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	7:29	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	24:18	4:22
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	+2	0	23:08	1:34
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	25:08	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	2	19:05	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:15	0:00
R. Ufko	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:55	1:34

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	40	39	1	.975	60:00	Win
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1T. Hertl11:17P. Dorofeyev11:22M. Marner10:57

Line 2K. Kolesar12:23C. Smith12:03N. Dowd10:52

Line 3M. Stone10:05J. Eichel10:27I. Barbashev11:29

Line 4B. Howden8:51B. Bowman7:27C. Sissons7:51

Pair 1B. McNabb15:14S. Theodore16:05

Pair 2B. Hutton12:51N. Hanifin14:16

Pair 3R. Andersson13:17J. Lauzon11:58

NSH

Line 1J. Marchessault13:14F. Forsberg14:11M. Wood9:08

Line 2S. Stamkos10:29L. Evangelista11:51R. O'Reilly10:43

Line 3E. Haula10:41Z. L'Heureux10:16T. Jost8:53

Line 4F. Svechkov11:40R. Schaefer7:29O. Wiesblatt6:31

Pair 1R. Josi13:49B. Skjei14:33

Pair 2N. Hague19:54J. Barron13:15

Pair 3N. Perbix12:47R. Ufko9:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJonathan Marchessault NSH Faces VGK, his team until May 20241 A, 0 SOG
Old teamNicolas Hague NSH Faces VGK, his team until May 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.2, NSH 2.7	VGK 1, NSH 4
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	VGK 28.3, NSH 25.3	VGK 40, NSH 20
Win chance	VGK 57%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	3	1.13	0	31%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.9	2	0.91	1	35%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	2	0.70	0	32%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	2	0.84	1	18%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.3	3	0.71	0	26%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	2	0.82	3	34%	2
NSH J. Marchessault	2.2	0	0.66	1	27%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	5	0.85	2	27%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	1.9	4	0.61	0	16%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	2	1.07	0	26%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.8	2	0.92	0	25%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.6	2	0.41	0	11%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.6	0	0.45	0	18%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.6	3	0.60	1	11%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	4	0.63	1	22%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.5	1	0.39	0	9%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	0	0.42	0	19%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.4	1	0.42	1	10%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.4	1	0.48	0	14%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.3	4	0.28	1	11%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.3	1	0.40	1	18%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.2	1	0.27	0	11%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	4	0.25	0	6%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.1	4	0.24	0	7%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.0	0	0.24	0	6%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.24	0	5%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.9	4	0.19	0	8%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	2	0.15	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	0	0.26	0	10%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.8	0	0.23	0	9%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.8	1	0.26	0	11%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.7	0	0.20	0	11%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.6	0	0.17	0	5%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.6	0	0.36	0	7%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.6	0	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.