Game Recap: VGK 5, NSH 2, October 13, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK5

FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night

NSH2

VGK beat NSH 5-2, with the chances close: 2.29 expected goals to 2.43. R. O'Reilly led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Forsberg had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. A. Hill stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	2	1	2	5
NSH	1	1	0	2

1st 3:55NSHR. O'Reilly0.29 xG
1st 6:46VGKT. Hertl0.11 xG
1st 12:48VGKJ. Eichel0.10 xG
2nd 8:45NSHA. EdstromSH0.12 xG
2nd 17:44VGKW. Karlsson0.12 xG
3rd 4:49VGKT. Connelly0.16 xG
3rd 6:24VGKB. Howden0.01 xG

Team Stats

VGKNSH

25Shots on goal27

2.29Expected goals2.43

45Shot attempts60

235v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play0/3

13Hits25

19Blocked shots8

6Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways24

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.29 xGNSH 2.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK25 on goal, 5 scored

NSH28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Howden	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+3	2	15:29	0:00
J. Eichel	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	17:54	1:49
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	16:38	1:49
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	15:24	1:49
W. Karlsson	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:22	2:11
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:27	1:49
T. Connelly	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:00	1:49
R. Lavoie	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	13:11	0:00
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	16:10	2:11
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:20	2:11
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:21	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:14	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	+3	0	19:24	2:11
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	+1	0	19:31	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	18:27	0:00
D. Coghlan	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	16:08	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	21:51	2:11
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	+2	0	21:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
C. Hart	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	20:22	4:32
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	0	23:06	4:39
A. Edstrom	C	1	0	1	1	4	2	-1	0	15:58	0:00
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:53	4:37
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:00	4:30
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	16:52	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	16:31	1:26
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-2	0	14:36	0:42
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	13:44	1:32
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	12:21	0:00
V. Pinchuk	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	11:27	1:17
N. Hague	D	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	15:04	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	23:03	4:38
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	19:09	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	6	1	-2	0	17:04	0:36
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	16:24	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	15:24	0:00
J. Ahcan	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	9:02	1:31

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	25	20	5	.800	60:00	Loss
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone12:59J. Eichel13:47I. Barbashev13:59

Line 2R. Lavoie13:02T. Connelly12:11T. Hertl12:28

Line 3B. Howden14:00M. Marner11:52W. Karlsson11:19

Line 4N. Dowd11:42M. Gatcomb11:14B. Bowman11:24

Pair 1R. Andersson17:04J. Lauzon18:39

Pair 2N. Hanifin17:18D. Coghlan16:08

Pair 3B. McNabb14:48S. Theodore16:06

NSH

Line 1J. Drury14:29A. Edstrom14:35R. Colton13:54

Line 2S. Stamkos14:16R. O'Reilly14:17A. Kerfoot12:28

Line 3F. Forsberg18:27M. Wood12:12N. Hoglander12:21

Line 4J. Marchessault12:30V. Pinchuk10:10

Pair 1R. Josi17:27A. Wilsby18:29

Pair 2B. Skjei13:27N. Perbix12:31

Pair 3N. Hague14:32J. Struble16:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 17 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-135	+115	7	Over
VGK J. Eichel	2.5	-160	+130	4	Over
VGK M. Marner	2.5	+150	-175	1	Under
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+135	-148	2	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+122	-130	1	Under
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	+160	-188	2	Under
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	+130	-150	2	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	1.5	-154	+130	2	Over
VGK M. Stone	1.5	-174	+135	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	1.5	-120	+105	0	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	1.5	+100	+100	1	Under
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	-120	-105	2	Over
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-130	+105	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-148	+115	2	Over
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	-135	+110	2	Over
VGK T. Connelly	1.5	-160	+125	2	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	1.5	-150	+130	2	Over

7 of 33 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+850	-2000	1	Over
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+575	-1000	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+370	-600	1	Over
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under
VGK D. Coghlan	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+390	-700	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
VGK J. Lauzon	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+300	-475	0	Under
VGK M. Gatcomb	0.5	+900	-4000	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+195	-260	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+360	-500	0	Under
VGK N. Dowd	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+450	-600	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+2100	-4000	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+725	-1600	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+475	-800	0	Under
VGK R. Lavoie	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+240	-300	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+169	-220	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+360	-500	1	Over
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+400	-550	1	Over

10 of 23 overs hit (43%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+320	-390	1	Over
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+320	-425	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+115	-140	1	Over
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+200	-265	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	-125	+115	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+172	-200	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+100	-110	1	Over
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+115	-135	1	Over
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+265	-380	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+650	-1100	1	Over
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+425	-650	1	Over
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+210	-290	2	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-135	+105	0	Under
VGK R. Lavoie	0.5	+475	-750	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+115	-125	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+160	-165	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+215	-295	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+225	-310	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+260	-360	0	Under

13 of 23 overs hit (57%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
VGK J. Eichel	1.5	+172	-210	1	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+165	-195	2	Over
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+215	-295	1	Over
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+240	-260	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-170	+150	1	Over
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+125	-150	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	-190	+165	1	Over
VGK M. Stone	0.5	-190	+155	1	Over
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+500	-800	1	Over
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+330	-475	1	Over
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+175	-240	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+150	-205	2	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-170	+135	0	Under
VGK R. Lavoie	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-155	+135	2	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-155	+130	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+115	-145	1	Over
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	-110	+100	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+145	-180	1	Over

0 of 17 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+195	-250	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+120	-150	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+360	-800	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+145	-170	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+195	-225	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+270	-500	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+180	-200	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+250	-375	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+200	-250	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+220	-375	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+210	-280	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	26.5	-102	-120	20	Under
VGK A. Hill	23.5	-110	+100	25	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Hague NSH Faces VGK, his team until May 20251 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, NSH 2.9	VGK 5, NSH 2
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	VGK 28.6, NSH 26.3	VGK 25, NSH 27
Win chance	VGK 53%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.1	4	1.13	1	30%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	7	0.99	1	37%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	1	0.87	0	36%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.4	1	1.09	1	29%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.3	2	0.79	0	16%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.3	2	0.69	0	29%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.3	2	0.66	1	24%	1
VGK M. Stone	2.2	0	0.94	1	30%	0
VGK T. Connelly	2.0	2	0.45	1	16%	1
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	2	0.57	1	21%	1
NSH R. Colton	2.0	0	0.41	0	18%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	2	0.90	2	30%	1
VGK S. Theodore	1.7	2	0.56	0	12%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	1	0.57	0	20%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.6	0	0.44	0	19%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	2	0.45	2	21%	1
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	2	0.33	2	9%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.3	1	0.33	1	8%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.2	3	0.13	1	3%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.2	2	0.34	0	13%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.2	0	0.37	0	12%	0
VGK M. Gatcomb	1.2	1	0.18	0	9%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.2	2	0.37	0	8%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.1	1	0.31	0	15%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.1	1	0.22	1	12%	1
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	0	0.26	1	5%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	2	0.28	0	4%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.9	1	0.40	0	14%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	1	0.12	0	3%	0
VGK R. Lavoie	0.9	1	0.11	1	6%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.22	0	5%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.8	0	0.22	0	10%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.8	1	0.19	1	4%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.5	0	0.15	0	3%	0
NSH J. Ahcan	0.4	0	0.06	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.