Game Recap: VGK 4, NYI 5 (SO), December 9, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK4

Final/SOTue, Dec 9, 2025Every game that night

NYI5

NYI beat VGK 5-4 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.47 expected goals to 3.65. VGK outshot NYI 37 to 27. B. Horvat led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Marner had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. I. Sorokin stopped 33 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
VGK	2	0	2	0	4
NYI	1	2	1	1	5

1st 12:02VGKN. Hanifin0.26 xG
1st 16:01VGKM. Marner0.30 xG
1st 19:33NYIB. Horvat0.08 xG
2nd 3:56NYIM. Gatcomb0.23 xG
2nd 13:30NYIS. Holmstrom0.05 xG
3rd 1:27VGKI. Barbashev0.06 xG
3rd 10:15NYIB. HorvatPP0.09 xG
3rd 19:46VGKP. Dorofeyev0.04 xG

Team Stats

VGKNYI

37Shots on goal27

3.65Expected goals2.47

62Shot attempts53

235v5 shots on goal21

0/4Power play1/2

14Hits24

12Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes8

20Giveaways15

6Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.65 xGNYI 2.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK37 on goal, 4 scored

NYI27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	2	2	4	1	0	+1	0	24:30	5:37
M. Stone	RW	0	2	2	3	0	2	+2	0	22:32	5:37
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	5	0	1	+1	2	20:49	4:31
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	5	3	1	+1	2	21:05	5:35
I. Barbashev	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:17	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:53	0:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	19:11	4:11
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	17:21	0:14
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:43	0:23
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:32	0:16
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	7:08	0:09
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	6:29	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	24:28	1:04
N. Hanifin	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	21:53	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:20	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	19:12	0:23
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	18:28	0:20
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	27	23	4	.852	63:48	OT loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	2	0	2	5	1	0	-2	2	22:19	2:29
M. Shabanov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	20:00	2:27
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:47	2:28
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:42	1:02
A. Duclair	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	12:45	2:29
C. Cizikas	C	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	0	11:14	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	10:46	1:02
K. MacLean	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	2	10:31	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	1	0	1	1	9	0	0	0	9:47	0:00
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	18:58	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:24	1:01
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:41	1:03
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	29:12	0:02
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	28:14	2:13
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-2	2	23:30	0:03
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	16:40	1:16
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	16:18	0:00
T. Mitchell	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	10:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	37	33	4	.892	65:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1T. Hertl14:23P. Dorofeyev15:05R. Smith15:01

Line 2I. Barbashev14:46J. Eichel13:57B. Bowman12:53

Line 3M. Marner12:53B. Howden13:15M. Stone13:07

Line 4C. Sissons7:45K. Kolesar6:59C. Reinhardt6:29

Pair 1B. McNabb16:04S. Theodore16:13

Pair 2Z. Whitecloud16:21N. Hanifin18:28

Pair 3B. Hutton14:58K. Korczak15:58

NYI

Line 1M. Shabanov15:17B. Horvat14:53E. Heineman14:42

Line 2J. Pageau13:56M. Barzal14:45A. Lee13:38

Line 3S. Holmstrom10:34C. Ritchie9:44A. Duclair10:16

Line 4C. Cizikas9:03M. Gatcomb9:41K. MacLean10:13

Pair 1M. Schaefer20:13R. Pulock20:09

Pair 2A. Pelech18:23T. DeAngelo14:51

Pair 3S. Mayfield13:57T. Mitchell10:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.9, NYI 2.7	VGK 4, NYI 5
Total goals	5.6	9
Shots on goal	VGK 28.2, NYI 27.1	VGK 37, NYI 27
Win chance	VGK 54%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.4	4	1.07	2	31%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	5	0.80	2	33%	2
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	5	0.60	1	29%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.5	2	0.85	1	24%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	4	0.70	0	28%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.4	4	0.58	1	14%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	1	0.52	0	23%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	1	0.61	1	8%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.0	3	0.41	1	8%	1
VGK M. Stone	2.0	3	0.89	2	25%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.7	2	0.50	1	19%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.7	5	1.00	2	26%	1
NYI E. Heineman	1.7	1	0.45	0	22%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.6	1	0.50	1	17%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.6	4	0.40	0	8%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	2	0.58	1	22%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	3	0.25	0	4%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	3	0.40	0	19%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	0	0.26	1	14%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.2	0	0.37	1	18%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.2	0	0.33	0	13%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.2	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	1	0.31	1	5%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	1	0.25	1	15%	1
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	1	0.44	0	15%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	1	0.44	1	19%	1
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	2	0.23	0	4%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	0	0.23	0	9%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.9	0	0.22	1	9%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	0	0.19	1	9%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.8	1	0.18	1	3%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	2	0.22	0	8%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	2	0.15	0	3%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.7	0	0.19	0	8%	0
NYI T. Mitchell	0.3	0	0.09	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.