Game Recap: VGK 2, NYR 4, February 2, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK2

FinalSun, Feb 2, 2025Every game that night

NYR4

NYR beat VGK 4-2, with the chances close: 2.62 expected goals to 2.47. VGK outshot NYR 36 to 28. M. Zibanejad led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Lavoie had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.6. J. Quick stopped 34 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	1	1	0	2
NYR	0	1	3	4

1st 19:41VGKJ. EichelPP0.12 xG
2nd 1:18NYRA. Lafrenière0.12 xG
2nd 9:16VGKJ. Eichel0.04 xG
3rd 5:04NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.85 xG
3rd 11:33NYRK. Miller0.07 xG
3rd 18:19NYRA. PanarinPP0.05 xG

Team Stats

VGKNYR

36Shots on goal28

2.47Expected goals2.62

68Shot attempts52

335v5 shots on goal22

1/1Power play2/2

22Hits38

11Blocked shots15

11Penalty minutes9

12Giveaways24

8Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.47 xGNYR 2.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK35 on goal, 2 scored

NYR28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	2	0	2	4	1	0	0	0	20:12	1:05
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	18:51	1:05
K. Kolesar	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	15:48	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	14:26	1:05
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:59	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:22	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	15:31	0:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	14:38	1:05
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
R. Lavoie	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	11:58	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	11:14	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:06	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	2	24:55	1:05
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	23:19	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	21:23	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	16:45	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:54	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	5	15:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	28	24	4	.857	58:25	Loss
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	2	3	5	0	2	+1	0	21:03	2:07
A. Panarin	LW	1	2	3	4	0	0	+1	0	20:00	2:07
J. Miller	C	0	2	2	2	5	0	+2	0	18:23	2:07
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	16:56	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	16:43	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	20:18	0:00
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:24	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	12:21	2:07
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:49	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:45	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	10:08	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	5	9:13	0:00
K. Miller	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	21:55	0:32
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	21:03	1:35
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	6	4	0	0	19:04	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:47	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	+2	0	18:34	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	18:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	36	34	2	.944	60:00	Win
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPavel Dorofeyev NYR First game against VGK since he left (his team until Jun 2026)1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.0, NYR 2.6	VGK 2, NYR 4
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	VGK 30.6, NYR 27.5	VGK 36, NYR 28
Win chance	VGK 56%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.7	4	1.14	2	32%	2
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	4	1.09	3	32%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	1	0.63	1	29%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.4	0	0.71	0	24%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.4	1	0.60	1	24%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.3	3	0.65	0	24%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	5	0.70	3	24%	1
NYR C. Kreider	2.2	4	0.59	0	31%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	4	1.01	1	28%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	2	0.89	2	26%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.0	3	0.69	1	9%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.9	1	0.47	0	7%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.8	0	0.48	0	22%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	0	0.42	0	9%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.7	0	0.52	1	19%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	2	0.38	0	18%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.7	3	0.42	0	19%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	1	0.67	0	23%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.6	1	0.66	1	10%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	2	0.36	0	17%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	0	0.26	0	10%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.3	0	0.41	0	14%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.3	1	0.30	1	7%	1
VGK T. Pearson	1.3	3	0.30	0	12%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	3	0.26	0	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	0	0.20	0	5%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	2	0.15	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	1	0.33	1	13%	0
NYR J. Vesey	1.1	0	0.23	0	11%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	2	0.21	0	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	1	0.18	0	5%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.7	3	0.22	0	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	2	0.16	0	1%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.6	0	0.17	0	8%	0
VGK R. Lavoie	0.6	4	0.11	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.