Game Recap: VGK 3, NYR 2 (OT), December 7, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK3

Final/OTSun, Dec 7, 2025Every game that night

NYR2

VGK beat NYR 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.90 expected goals to 2.45. M. Zibanejad led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Hanifin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Hart stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	1	0	1	1	3
NYR	0	2	0	0	2

1st 0:36VGKB. Howden0.17 xG
2nd 9:08NYRM. Zibanejad0.19 xG
2nd 13:01NYRA. Lafrenière0.11 xG
3rd 19:08VGKT. Hertl0.23 xG
OT 4:52VGKJ. Eichel0.30 xG

Team Stats

VGKNYR

28Shots on goal24

2.90Expected goals2.45

71Shot attempts46

205v5 shots on goal18

0/1Power play0/0

15Hits33

11Blocked shots23

9Penalty minutes11

18Giveaways15

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.90 xGNYR 2.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK28 on goal, 3 scored

NYR24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	23:00	1:54
M. Stone	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	19:19	1:54
B. Howden	C	1	1	2	1	2	0	+2	2	14:44	0:06
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	20:03	1:54
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	0	19:53	1:54
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	+1	0	19:12	1:54
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:31	0:06
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:56	0:06
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:41	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:34	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:22	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	5	10:17	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	25:00	0:06
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	+1	0	23:52	0:06
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:21	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+1	0	21:30	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:27	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	12:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	24	22	2	.917	64:09	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	1	2	4	4	1	0	0	18:51	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	1	2	2	1	2	+1	0	15:22	0:00
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	18:28	0:00
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	23:51	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	23:50	0:00
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	16:03	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:15	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:32	0:00
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:15	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:25	0:00
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	2	9:02	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	7:53	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	19:54	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-2	0	27:15	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	-2	0	24:30	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	+1	0	23:06	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	+1	2	21:12	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	13:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	28	25	3	.893	64:52	OT loss
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1B. Bowman13:50I. Barbashev15:23J. Eichel16:11

Line 2T. Hertl15:26P. Dorofeyev15:32B. Saad13:41

Line 3M. Stone13:23M. Marner13:30B. Howden13:09

Line 4R. Smith11:15C. Reinhardt11:34K. Kolesar10:10

Pair 1B. McNabb18:34S. Theodore19:22

Pair 2Z. Whitecloud18:59N. Hanifin20:49

Pair 3B. Hutton12:20K. Korczak17:02

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck16:56J. Miller17:00C. Sheary16:03

Line 2M. Zibanejad15:39A. Panarin15:58A. Lafrenière14:42

Line 3W. Cuylle12:42N. Laba13:32B. Berard12:15

Line 4J. Brodzinski10:25J. Chmelar9:02S. Carrick7:53

Pair 1V. Gavrikov21:07B. Schneider18:39

Pair 2C. Soucy20:09W. Borgen17:47

Pair 3M. Robertson16:46S. Morrow13:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPavel Dorofeyev NYR First game against VGK since he left (his team until Jun 2026)5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, NYR 2.6	VGK 3, NYR 2
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	VGK 29.9, NYR 24.6	VGK 28, NYR 24
Win chance	VGK 58%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	2	1.08	2	31%	1
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	0	1.08	1	33%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.7	5	0.60	0	29%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	4	0.77	2	26%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	2	0.69	1	27%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	2	0.78	0	26%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	2	0.61	1	9%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	1	0.90	2	25%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	3	0.94	0	29%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	1	0.54	0	22%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.0	5	0.41	0	9%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.9	0	0.56	0	20%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	0	1.02	1	25%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.7	2	0.50	2	20%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	2	0.60	0	22%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.5	2	0.34	0	17%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.5	1	0.22	0	12%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	1	0.40	2	18%	1
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	0	0.31	0	13%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.33	0	7%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	3	0.33	0	13%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.3	1	0.34	0	13%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.2	3	0.21	0	5%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.1	0	0.28	0	13%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.1	0	0.21	0	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	0	0.23	0	6%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.23	0	4%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.9	3	0.20	0	5%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.9	1	0.11	1	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.18	0	6%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	0	0.23	0	8%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	1	0.15	0	7%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.7	0	0.19	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.