Game Recap: VGK 3, SEA 4 (OT), November 8, 2024

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Game Recap

VGK3

Final/OTFri, Nov 8, 2024Every game that night

SEA4

SEA beat VGK 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.70 expected goals to 2.56. SEA outshot VGK 32 to 24. J. Eichel led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). B. Tanev had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Daccord stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	2	0	1	0	3
SEA	1	1	1	1	4

1st 10:13VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.14 xG
1st 13:31VGKN. Roy0.15 xG
1st 17:21SEAB. Tanev0.16 xG
2nd 7:12SEAB. Tanev0.13 xG
3rd 2:58SEAO. Bjorkstrand0.18 xG
3rd 18:38VGKA. Pietrangelo0.04 xG
OT 0:29SEAJ. McCann0.21 xG

Team Stats

VGKSEA

24Shots on goal32

2.56Expected goals2.70

52Shot attempts53

175v5 shots on goal27

1/4Power play0/1

26Hits31

10Blocked shots16

2Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways7

7Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.56 xGSEA 2.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK24 on goal, 3 scored

SEA32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	23:45	3:46
N. Roy	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	20:36	3:21
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	20:31	2:30
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	-2	0	18:23	3:39
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:22	2:12
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	16:57	3:21
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:59	2:30
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	14:01	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:51	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	9:10	0:09
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:49	0:09
J. Rondbjerg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:16	0:09
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	24:21	3:26
A. Pietrangelo	D	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	23:49	2:14
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	22:14	2:34
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	19:18	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:04	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	32	28	4	.875	58:25	OT loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tanev	LW	2	0	2	6	1	2	+1	0	16:06	0:00
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	15:44	1:05
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	12:35	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	9:33	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	23:09	0:57
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	17:31	0:54
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:31	1:00
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	15:19	0:00
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:59	1:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:10	1:03
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:06	1:06
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:36	0:37
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	1	4	3	+2	2	25:19	1:26
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	24:17	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	-1	2	21:25	0:34
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	0	20:38	0:18
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:26	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	11:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	24	21	3	.875	60:29	Win
A. Stezka	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChandler Stephenson SEA Faces VGK, his team until May 20244 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.2, SEA 2.8	VGK 3, SEA 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	VGK 28.7, SEA 27.8	VGK 24, SEA 32
Win chance	VGK 57%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.2	3	0.98	3	30%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.7	2	0.86	1	33%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.4	1	0.59	1	13%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.3	3	0.58	1	27%	1
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.0	3	0.54	1	20%	1
SEA J. Eberle	1.9	2	0.59	0	22%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	3	0.63	1	10%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.9	1	0.62	0	21%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.9	3	0.52	0	21%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.8	3	0.49	1	8%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	0	0.49	0	11%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	0	0.55	0	21%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.7	0	0.57	0	21%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.7	1	0.50	0	17%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.6	1	0.43	0	15%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	2	0.40	0	17%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.5	3	0.34	0	15%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	3	0.62	1	21%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	0	0.37	0	17%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.4	3	0.48	2	16%	1
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	3	0.25	0	6%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.3	1	0.20	0	5%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.3	0	0.37	0	7%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.3	1	0.34	0	13%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	4	0.73	0	21%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.2	6	0.30	2	15%	2
VGK J. Rondbjerg	1.2	0	0.18	0	8%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	0	0.26	0	4%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	0	0.22	1	12%	0
SEA W. Borgen	1.0	2	0.24	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	0	0.30	0	12%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.0	0	0.30	0	15%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.8	0	0.21	0	8%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	0	0.19	0	6%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	2	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.