Game Recap: VGK 3, SEA 4 (SO), April 9, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

VGK3

Final/SOThu, Apr 9, 2026Every game that night

SEA4

SEA beat VGK 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.94 expected goals to 3.45. M. Stone led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. McMann had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Daccord stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
VGK	1	1	1	0	3
SEA	0	1	2	1	4

1st 10:04VGKM. Stone0.15 xG
2nd 0:55VGKM. StonePP0.42 xG
2nd 17:54SEAJ. McCannPP0.06 xG
3rd 1:11VGKB. Howden0.28 xG
3rd 6:11SEAB. Catton0.23 xG
3rd 9:16SEAB. McMann0.04 xG

Team Stats

VGKSEA

34Shots on goal33

3.45Expected goals2.94

64Shot attempts70

295v5 shots on goal28

1/1Power play1/1

23Hits20

15Blocked shots13

2Penalty minutes2

18Giveaways13

7Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.45 xGSEA 2.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK34 on goal, 3 scored

SEA33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Stone	RW	2	0	2	4	1	3	+1	0	20:13	0:55
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	21:19	0:55
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	19:18	0:55
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	15:34	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	15:30	0:55
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	14:46	0:55
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	6	2	0	+1	0	18:26	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:32	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:13	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	12:42	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:05	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:05	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	-1	0	29:03	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	-1	0	24:50	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	23:32	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	20:05	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	15:36	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	10:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	33	30	3	.909	65:00	OT loss
C. Hart	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	20:05	0:59
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	20:04	0:59
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	8	1	0	+1	0	19:33	0:00
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	14:21	0:59
B. Catton	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:01	0:00
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	21:17	0:59
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:09	0:00
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:19	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:06	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	15:02	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	9:01	0:00
O. Fisker Molgaard	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:01	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	2	2	2	1	3	0	0	22:50	0:59
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	21:23	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	0	2	24:09	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	22:30	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:10	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	34	31	3	.912	65:00	Win
N. Kokko	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone17:24J. Eichel17:42I. Barbashev17:38

Line 2B. Howden14:38P. Dorofeyev14:10M. Marner15:15

Line 3B. Saad13:28T. Hertl13:51C. Sissons13:50

Line 4N. Dowd12:05C. Smith11:27K. Kolesar12:42

Pair 1R. Andersson26:58N. Hanifin23:54

Pair 2B. McNabb19:28S. Theodore21:11

Pair 3B. Hutton10:12J. Lauzon14:37

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle17:32M. Beniers17:49B. McMann17:14

Line 2C. Stephenson17:57K. Kakko18:09J. Schwartz17:19

Line 3F. Gaudreau13:36R. Winterton14:07J. McCann12:01

Line 4J. Melanson9:01O. Molgaard9:01B. Catton10:27

Pair 1A. Larsson20:28V. Dunn19:37

Pair 2B. Montour22:27J. Mahura16:04

Pair 3J. Oleksiak16:15R. Evans21:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChandler Stephenson SEA Faces VGK, his team until May 20241 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.3, SEA 2.7	VGK 3, SEA 4
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	VGK 29.0, SEA 23.0	VGK 34, SEA 33
Win chance	VGK 59%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	2	1.07	1	30%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.7	2	0.70	1	32%	0
SEA B. McMann	2.2	8	0.61	1	27%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.2	2	0.47	0	14%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.0	2	1.04	1	27%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.0	2	0.62	1	23%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.0	2	0.70	1	27%	1
VGK M. Stone	1.9	4	0.94	2	27%	2
SEA J. Eberle	1.8	2	0.65	1	23%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.7	2	0.39	1	9%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	0	0.57	0	22%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.6	2	0.50	2	11%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.6	4	0.34	1	6%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.6	0	0.47	0	20%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	1	0.54	0	8%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	6	0.58	0	20%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.3	4	0.30	0	9%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.3	1	0.29	0	14%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	2	0.24	0	5%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.3	1	0.30	1	12%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.3	1	0.40	1	18%	1
VGK C. Sissons	1.2	0	0.26	0	11%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.1	2	0.21	0	5%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.1	4	0.28	1	6%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.1	0	0.51	0	17%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	3	0.15	0	3%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.0	0	0.34	0	14%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.0	1	0.61	1	18%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.8	0	0.17	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	0	0.23	0	9%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	1	0.19	0	3%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.7	0	0.24	0	10%	0
SEA O. Molgaard	0.7	0	0.22	0	8%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.7	2	0.15	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.6	0	0.24	0	7%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.6	4	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.