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Game Recap
VGK6
FinalTue, Oct 6, 2026Every game that night
SEA2

VGK beat SEA 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.08 expected goals to 2.51. T. Hertl led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). J. McCann had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Hart stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VGK2316
SEA0022
  1. 1st 13:02VGKV. Olofsson0.14 xG
  2. 1st 15:58VGKT. HertlPP0.20 xG
  3. 2nd 1:43VGKM. StoneSH0.19 xG
  4. 2nd 13:07VGKV. Olofsson0.18 xG
  5. 2nd 19:29VGKJ. Eichel0.14 xG
  6. 3rd 4:52SEAS. Wright0.05 xG
  7. 3rd 9:43VGKT. HertlPP0.28 xG
  8. 3rd 15:00SEAJ. McCannPP0.12 xG

Team Stats

VGKSEA
28Shots on goal27
4.08Expected goals2.51
58Shot attempts48
205v5 shots on goal18
2/5Power play1/5
16Hits17
12Blocked shots14
22Penalty minutes41
22Giveaways12
2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.08 xGSEA 2.51 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdVGK goal, 13:02VGK goal, 15:58VGK goal, 1:43VGK goal, 13:07VGK goal, 19:29SEA goal, 4:52VGK goal, 9:43SEA goal, 15:00

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK26 on goal, 6 scored
SEA27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. EichelC134200+2018:204:41
T. HertlC224321+1016:044:37
M. StoneRW112412+2515:513:12
V. OlofssonLW202200+1010:481:56
I. BarbashevLW011220+1015:301:24
T. ConnellyLW011000+1011:412:47
W. KarlssonC0001000018:442:48
M. MarnerRW0002010016:324:40
B. HowdenC0000000215:510:00
B. BowmanRW0001000015:062:48
N. DowdC0000110213:500:00
M. GatcombC000311079:090:00
R. AnderssonD0110000417:242:36
N. HanifinD000101+1021:052:32
P. WotherspoonD0001010020:170:00
B. McNabbD000221+2019:370:00
S. TheodoreD000401+2019:053:00
J. LauzonD000072+1216:000:04
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hart27252.92660:00Win
A. Hill000–0:00

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. KakkoRW022200-1014:574:07
J. EberleRW011001-1015:464:23
J. McCannLW1017000015:074:21
S. WrightC1014010014:432:35
C. StephensonC000000-1217:314:23
B. McMannC000320-1016:513:50
M. BeniersC000010-1016:213:32
F. GaudreauC000020-1015:550:00
B. CattonC000300-1015:353:34
M. SamoskevichRW000310-1013:512:05
R. WintertonC000130-1512:330:00
B. MeyersC000022-11510:480:00
C. FleuryD011102-1016:030:00
R. EvansD000031-1024:160:51
V. DunnD000102-2224:013:14
A. LarssonD0002230022:380:03
B. MontourD000012-11720:052:47
R. LindgrenD000000003:570:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Daccord21165.76239:53Loss
P. Grubauer761.85720:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev14:06M. Stone10:36J. Eichel11:11
Line 2B. Howden13:07W. Karlsson13:11M. Marner10:33
Line 3T. Hertl11:27V. Olofsson8:52T. Connelly8:48
Line 4N. Dowd10:48M. Gatcomb8:37B. Bowman11:44
Pair 1N. Hanifin15:30J. Lauzon13:22
Pair 2P. Wotherspoon15:09R. Andersson14:41
Pair 3B. McNabb14:34S. Theodore15:34

SEA

Line 1C. Stephenson11:23B. McMann11:52J. Eberle11:16
Line 2S. Wright11:54B. Catton11:52K. Kakko10:50
Line 3J. McCann10:16M. Beniers11:23M. Samoskevich11:46
Line 4F. Gaudreau11:45B. Meyers9:19R. Winterton9:22
Pair 1A. Larsson17:53V. Dunn19:25
Pair 2B. Montour16:04R. Evans20:16
Pair 3C. Fleury12:48R. Lindgren2:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 18 overs hit (50%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
SEA B. McMann2.5+104-1103Over
SEA B. Montour2.5+125-1400Under
VGK J. Eichel2.5-155+1222Under
VGK M. Marner2.5+136-1652Under
VGK T. Hertl2.5+116-1503Over
SEA B. Catton1.5+110-1403Over
VGK I. Barbashev1.5-105-1252Over
SEA J. Eberle1.5-115+1000Under
SEA J. McCann1.5-135+1307Over
SEA M. Beniers1.5+106-1250Under
SEA M. Samoskevich1.5-170+1303Over
VGK M. Stone1.5-174+1404Over
VGK R. Andersson1.5-150+1250Under
VGK S. Theodore1.5-190+1544Over
VGK T. Connelly1.5+100-1300Under
SEA V. Dunn1.5-125+1121Under
VGK V. Olofsson1.5-156+1302Over
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-160+1251Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVGK 3.2, SEA 2.9VGK 6, SEA 2
Total goals6.18
Shots on goalVGK 28.5, SEA 25.4VGK 28, SEA 27
Win chanceVGK 55%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel2.921.09429%1
SEA B. McMann2.530.56027%0
VGK M. Marner2.421.11029%0
SEA B. Montour2.400.47013%0
VGK T. Hertl2.230.61423%2
VGK M. Stone2.240.95230%1
SEA J. McCann2.170.68126%1
SEA M. Samoskevich2.130.46018%0
VGK W. Karlsson2.010.60022%0
VGK S. Theodore2.040.66012%0
VGK V. Olofsson1.820.42219%2
SEA V. Dunn1.710.51010%0
SEA J. Eberle1.700.59122%0
VGK R. Andersson1.700.3719%0
VGK B. Howden1.600.49023%0
SEA R. Winterton1.610.2808%0
SEA M. Beniers1.500.51020%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.510.3607%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.520.56120%0
SEA B. Catton1.330.31013%0
SEA A. Larsson1.320.2907%0
VGK B. Bowman1.210.38012%0
VGK B. McNabb1.220.2905%0
SEA S. Wright1.140.42118%1
SEA K. Kakko1.120.50217%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.130.19011%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.100.35015%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.000.1303%0
SEA B. Meyers1.000.22011%0
SEA C. Stephenson1.000.58017%0
VGK P. Wotherspoon0.910.2703%0
VGK N. Dowd0.900.24011%0
SEA C. Fleury0.810.1013%0
SEA R. Evans0.700.2807%0
SEA R. Lindgren0.600.1703%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.