Game Recap: VGK 6, SJS 3, December 27, 2024

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Game Recap

VGK6

FinalFri, Dec 27, 2024Every game that night

SJS3

VGK beat SJS 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.89 expected goals to 2.68. VGK outshot SJS 36 to 25. A. Pietrangelo led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). W. Karlsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Hill stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	1	1	4	6
SJS	1	2	0	3

1st 6:58VGKN. Hanifin0.09 xG
1st 14:40SJSS. Mukhamadullin0.02 xG
2nd 3:27VGKM. Stone0.57 xG
2nd 5:53SJSW. Smith0.55 xG
2nd 15:57SJST. Toffoli0.04 xG
3rd 1:03VGKB. McNabbSH0.13 xG
3rd 1:26VGKJ. EichelSH0.07 xG
3rd 5:46VGKP. Dorofeyev0.18 xG
3rd 19:28VGKB. HowdenEN0.31 xG

Team Stats

VGKSJS

36Shots on goal25

4.89Expected goals2.68

64Shot attempts66

295v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play0/3

11Hits19

25Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways14

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.89 xGSJS 2.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK36 on goal, 6 scored

SJS25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	1	2	2	0	3	+4	0	22:41	2:44
M. Stone	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+4	0	20:18	2:44
V. Olofsson	LW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	16:21	2:44
B. Howden	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	-1	0	13:16	0:00
W. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	0	18:43	1:09
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	4	0	2	-2	0	11:42	1:09
C. Schwindt	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	8:22	0:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	18:26	2:44
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:47	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:34	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	11:00	1:09
T. Laczynski	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7:44	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	3	3	3	0	4	+3	0	21:21	1:09
B. McNabb	D	1	1	2	2	1	4	+2	0	23:25	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	20:17	1:09
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	14:31	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	0	20:53	2:44
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	17:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	25	22	3	.880	60:00	Win
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	16:41	2:34
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	16:38	2:36
M. Granlund	C	0	1	1	4	2	3	-4	0	19:32	2:47
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	2	18:37	2:46
T. Toffoli	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-3	0	16:03	2:42
B. Goodrow	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	-2	2	13:48	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	16:32	2:46
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-3	0	16:20	2:47
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:22	0:20
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:44	2:44
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	12:42	0:22
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:21	0:30
S. Mukhamadullin	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	16:07	2:39
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	22:28	0:30
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:25	0:14
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	17:45	2:58
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	16:31	0:02
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	16:01	0:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	35	30	5	.857	57:44	Loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTomas Hertl VGK Faces SJS, his team until Jan 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 4.0, SJS 2.8	VGK 6, SJS 3
Total goals	6.8	9
Shots on goal	VGK 33.3, SJS 28.0	VGK 36, SJS 25
Win chance	VGK 67%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.4	2	1.22	2	34%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.1	2	0.89	1	28%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	3	0.66	1	29%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	4	0.58	1	28%	1
VGK W. Karlsson	2.3	5	0.81	1	28%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.3	4	0.86	1	19%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	2.2	3	0.58	3	10%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.1	3	0.60	1	12%	1
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	3	0.77	0	11%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.0	3	0.54	2	21%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	4	1.08	2	30%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.0	1	0.66	0	24%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.9	0	0.59	2	27%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	2	0.47	2	22%	1
VGK B. McNabb	1.4	2	0.30	2	5%	1
VGK K. Kolesar	1.3	2	0.43	0	17%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.3	2	0.33	0	16%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.3	1	0.21	0	12%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.3	0	0.19	0	5%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.2	2	0.36	0	14%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	0	0.42	0	15%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.2	3	0.34	2	14%	1
VGK A. Holtz	1.2	2	0.30	0	13%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.1	1	0.28	0	5%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	2	0.28	0	6%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.1	3	0.17	1	4%	1
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
SJS J. Rutta	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	0	0.22	1	6%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	1	0.24	1	11%	0
SJS N. Kovalenko	0.9	0	0.35	0	12%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.8	0	0.17	0	7%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.7	1	0.21	1	6%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
VGK T. Laczynski	0.7	0	0.15	0	9%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.6	0	0.17	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.