VGK beat SJS 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.22 expected goals to 1.70. VGK outshot SJS 42 to 21. M. Stone led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Stone had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. I. Samsonov stopped 19 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| SJS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 8:39VGKM. Stone0.18 xG
- 1st 10:08VGKZ. Whitecloud0.09 xG
- 2nd 9:49SJSW. EklundPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 1:10VGKV. OlofssonPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 10:41SJST. LiljegrenPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 18:40VGKT. HertlEN0.84 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 5.22 xGSJS 1.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 18:26 | 1:13 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:49 | 1:13 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:03 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:39 | 1:13 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:12 | 1:13 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Rondbjerg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 1:13 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:53 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 59:57 | Win |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Eklund | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:13 | 1:49 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 20:46 | 2:17 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:38 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:40 | 1:47 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:14 | 1:02 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 1:00 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:32 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:31 | 1:11 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:08 | 2:30 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 41 | 38 | 3 | .927 | 58:41 | Loss |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.9, SJS 2.6 | VGK 4, SJS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 33.4, SJS 27.0 | VGK 42, SJS 21 |
| Win chance | VGK 69% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.5 | 3 | 1.24 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.9 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.6 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.5 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.4 | 0 | 0.78 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 2.2 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.1 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 2.1 | 6 | 0.65 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.1 | 4 | 0.68 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.1 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 6 | 1.05 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.9 | 2 | 0.73 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.4 | 5 | 0.55 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.3 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.0 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK J. Rondbjerg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.