Game Recap: VGK 7, SJS 2, January 11, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK7

FinalSun, Jan 11, 2026Every game that night

SJS2

VGK beat SJS 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.35 expected goals to 2.24. VGK outshot SJS 32 to 20. T. Hertl led the way with 5 points (2 G, 3 A). J. Eichel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. C. Lindbom stopped 18 of 20.

Team Stats

VGKSJS

32Shots on goal20

3.35Expected goals2.24

55Shot attempts46

225v5 shots on goal14

2/4Power play0/5

19Hits21

11Blocked shots15

10Penalty minutes8

23Giveaways11

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.35 xGSJS 2.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK31 on goal, 6 scored

SJS20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Hertl	C	2	3	5	3	0	0	+3	0	15:35	4:25
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	2	3	3	0	2	+1	2	18:25	4:42
M. Stone	RW	0	3	3	2	1	2	+1	0	17:44	4:30
J. Eichel	C	2	0	2	7	1	0	+2	2	17:00	4:30
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	9:59	0:06
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	21:40	4:47
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	17:03	0:11
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:49	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	0	12:51	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:36	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:59	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	9:53	0:05
N. Hanifin	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	2	20:24	0:05
S. Theodore	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+3	0	23:05	0:17
J. Lauzon	D	0	1	1	1	4	1	+3	2	20:26	0:06
Z. Whitecloud	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	0	19:02	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	15:26	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:06	0:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindbom	20	18	2	.900	59:57	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	21:06	6:08
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	2	17:19	5:39
C. Graf	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	13:13	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	12:15	1:59
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-4	0	23:53	7:01
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-4	2	22:41	6:14
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	16:37	2:07
P. Regenda	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:33	2:32
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	11:43	1:08
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:34	0:04
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	10:56	0:02
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	9:56	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	2	18:55	0:02
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	21:52	4:17
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	21:48	3:58
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	17:18	0:08
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	2	16:47	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	14:15	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	31	25	6	.806	58:49	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1R. Smith13:30M. Marner13:31P. Dorofeyev13:40

Line 2K. Kolesar11:08A. Holtz11:27T. Hertl10:46

Line 3C. Reinhardt8:54B. Bowman10:08C. Sissons12:23

Line 4M. Stone8:29I. Barbashev9:45J. Eichel7:51

Pair 1S. Theodore16:16J. Lauzon15:00

Pair 2N. Hanifin15:58Z. Whitecloud14:35

Pair 3B. Hutton12:55K. Korczak13:39

SJS

Line 1W. Eklund14:11M. Celebrini14:27I. Chernyshov13:05

Line 2T. Toffoli10:29A. Wennberg10:35P. Regenda9:53

Line 3J. Skinner10:16M. Misa9:55C. Graf9:34

Line 4A. Gaudette9:56Z. Ostapchuk10:11B. Goodrow9:23

Pair 1J. Klingberg16:17S. Dickinson14:58

Pair 2V. Iorio14:34M. Ferraro12:51

Pair 3D. Orlov14:04T. Liljegren15:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTomas Hertl VGK Faces SJS, his team until Jan 20242 G, 3 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.5, SJS 2.7	VGK 7, SJS 2
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	VGK 29.2, SJS 23.9	VGK 32, SJS 20
Win chance	VGK 63%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	1	1.34	0	35%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	7	1.24	2	35%	2
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	3	0.67	3	32%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	1	0.74	1	30%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	3	0.74	5	28%	2
SJS W. Eklund	2.4	3	0.77	0	22%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.2	2	0.55	2	11%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.2	2	1.08	3	31%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	2	0.72	1	11%	1
VGK M. Marner	1.9	3	1.17	0	29%	0
SJS P. Regenda	1.8	0	0.36	0	19%	0
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.6	1	0.54	0	17%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.5	1	0.51	0	12%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.67	1	24%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.5	3	0.43	1	20%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.5	0	0.32	0	9%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.5	0	0.38	0	13%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.5	1	0.31	0	15%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	3	0.46	0	19%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	1	0.61	1	17%	1
VGK B. Bowman	1.3	2	0.42	0	15%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	3	0.34	0	17%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.2	0	0.44	0	8%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.2	0	0.35	0	5%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.1	1	0.19	1	5%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.1	2	0.46	1	18%	1
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	1	0.25	0	10%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	0	0.29	0	11%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.0	1	0.27	1	6%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	2	0.23	1	7%	1
SJS S. Dickinson	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.7	1	0.17	0	8%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	0	0.11	0	6%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.6	1	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.