Game Recap: VGK 4, STL 2, January 23, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK4

FinalThu, Jan 23, 2025Every game that night

STL2

VGK beat STL 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.54 expected goals to 2.55. VGK outshot STL 31 to 17. M. Stone led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Hertl had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. I. Samsonov stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	2	1	1	4
STL	1	0	1	2

1st 0:19VGKM. Stone0.23 xG
1st 8:54VGKV. Olofsson0.09 xG
1st 10:22STLJ. Kyrou0.06 xG
2nd 6:30VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.09 xG
3rd 16:34STLR. Thomas0.27 xG
3rd 19:33VGKT. HertlEN0.57 xG

Team Stats

VGKSTL

31Shots on goal17

4.54Expected goals2.55

48Shot attempts57

245v5 shots on goal11

1/2Power play0/2

15Hits29

18Blocked shots5

4Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways10

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.54 xGSTL 2.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK31 on goal, 4 scored

STL16 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Stone	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	19:30	1:22
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	4	0	2	+2	0	23:04	1:22
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+2	0	19:05	0:51
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	6	1	2	0	0	15:54	1:22
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	15:30	1:22
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	13:26	0:51
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	16:31	0:51
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	13:50	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:41	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
B. Brisson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:47	0:00
T. Laczynski	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:29	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	+1	0	25:07	0:51
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+1	0	22:03	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	22:03	0:51
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	19:33	1:22
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:03	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Samsonov	17	15	2	.882	60:00	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	20:49	1:59
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:39	2:05
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:30	1:55
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	19:21	2:08
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:33	1:58
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	16:20	1:52
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	16:01	1:51
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:11	1:53
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:36	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	11:23	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:03	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:13	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	20:54	1:59
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:55	2:01
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	21:07	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:05	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	15:44	0:19
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	15:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	30	27	3	.900	55:15	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamIvan Barbashev VGK Faces STL, his team until Feb 20231 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, STL 2.8	VGK 4, STL 2
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	VGK 30.1, STL 27.1	VGK 31, STL 17
Win chance	VGK 55%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.4	4	1.06	1	31%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	5	0.63	1	30%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.8	2	0.83	1	32%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.3	0	0.64	1	23%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	6	0.64	1	24%	1
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	1	0.75	0	11%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	2	0.95	2	29%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.9	1	0.65	0	22%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	3	0.72	1	25%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.9	1	0.52	1	24%	1
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.9	0	0.47	1	8%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.8	2	0.84	1	22%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	3	0.44	0	10%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	1	0.39	0	10%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.6	2	0.46	0	23%	0
STL B. Saad	1.6	1	0.43	0	20%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.5	2	0.39	1	7%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	3	0.59	1	21%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.3	4	0.38	0	14%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	1	0.46	0	8%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	0	0.24	0	12%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.2	1	0.28	0	11%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.23	0	4%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.1	1	0.30	0	6%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	0	0.15	0	4%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	0	0.28	0	10%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
VGK B. Brisson	1.1	0	0.30	0	10%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	0	0.30	0	12%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	0	0.26	0	12%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.20	0	6%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	0	0.33	0	12%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.7	0	0.15	0	5%	0
STL R. Suter	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0
VGK T. Laczynski	0.6	0	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.