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Game Recap
VGK4
STL1
VGK beat STL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.08 expected goals to 1.37. VGK outshot STL 34 to 23. P. Dorofeyev led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Schmid stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 12:52VGKB. Saad0.20 xG
- 1st 14:58VGKB. BowmanPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 0:36VGKN. Hanifin0.02 xG
- 3rd 11:20VGKT. Hertl0.17 xG
- 3rd 15:57STLP. Broberg0.04 xG
Team Stats
VGKSTL
34Shots on goal23
3.08Expected goals1.37
71Shot attempts47
255v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play0/2
12Hits24
11Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes6
22Giveaways15
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.08 xGSTL 1.37 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 3:34 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:58 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:39 | 3:34 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:32 | 3:33 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:08 | 3:33 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:19 | 1:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:23 | 3:23 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:59 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:37 | 0:59 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 1:10 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21:06 | 0:02 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Schmid | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindbom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 1:50 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:17 | 2:14 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 2:12 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 1:46 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:45 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:17 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:20 | 1:45 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:17 | 1:46 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:27 | 0:03 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 1:55 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 12:33 | 0:01 |
| P. Broberg | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:16 | 1:57 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:42 | 2:03 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:26 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 34 | 30 | 4 | .882 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
Line 1M. Marner15:13P. Dorofeyev14:11T. Hertl13:59
Line 2I. Barbashev13:55J. Eichel14:50B. Bowman12:35
Line 4C. Reinhardt11:31K. Kolesar11:27C. Sissons10:20
Pair 1B. McNabb19:50S. Theodore19:10
Pair 2Z. Whitecloud17:18N. Hanifin20:28
Pair 3K. Korczak18:28J. Lauzon8:02
STL
Line 1B. Schenn12:32D. Holloway13:54J. Kyrou12:31
Line 2J. Snuggerud13:03R. Thomas12:06P. Buchnevich14:26
Line 3N. Bjugstad12:27D. Dvorsky11:01N. Walker12:32
Line 4P. Suter13:14O. Sundqvist14:13
Pair 2C. Parayko17:22P. Broberg17:49
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.2, STL 2.7 | VGK 4, STL 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 27.9, STL 24.1 | VGK 34, STL 23 |
| Win chance | VGK 58% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 2 | 1.14 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.1 | 3 | 0.68 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.5 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.4 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 3 | 1.20 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.7 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.5 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.5 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.6 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.5 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.