Game Recap: VGK 1, TBL 2 (OT), October 26, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK1

Final/OTSun, Oct 26, 2025Every game that night

TBL2

TBL beat VGK 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.71 expected goals to 1.42. TBL outshot VGK 28 to 19. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Hagel had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	1	0	0	0	1
TBL	1	0	0	1	2

1st 4:53TBLB. Hagel0.44 xG
1st 18:25VGKW. Karlsson0.08 xG
OT 0:32TBLN. Kucherov0.16 xG

Team Stats

VGKTBL

19Shots on goal28

1.42Expected goals2.71

39Shot attempts64

135v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play0/5

27Hits19

24Blocked shots14

15Penalty minutes11

15Giveaways17

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 1.42 xGTBL 2.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK17 on goal, 1 scored

TBL28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Karlsson	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	18:04	0:52
R. Smith	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	14:19	0:26
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	21:41	4:13
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:21	4:18
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:56	4:06
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	15:58	3:44
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:05	0:31
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-2	0	15:00	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:33	0:08
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	4	10:41	0:22
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	5	9:20	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	7:15	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	-1	0	27:45	4:19
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	24:34	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	2	17:49	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:55	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	2	15:22	0:11
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	12:58	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindbom	28	26	2	.929	60:32	OT loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hagel	LW	1	1	2	5	0	0	+2	2	19:24	2:56
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	0	23:08	5:58
N. Kucherov	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	22:07	7:05
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:55	4:11
B. Point	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:12	6:06
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	15:49	0:00
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	15:38	0:04
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	15:18	5:09
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:40	1:31
D. James	C	0	0	0	1	3	3	-1	0	12:34	1:33
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:49	0:03
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	21:31	5:59
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	22:15	0:03
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:37	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	17:41	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	12:41	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	10:36	2:42
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	19	18	1	.947	60:32	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1P. Dorofeyev12:50T. Hertl12:14M. Marner12:56

Line 2R. Smith11:54A. Holtz10:19W. Karlsson13:29

Line 3I. Barbashev13:50J. Eichel12:53B. Saad10:38

Line 4K. Kolesar8:07B. Howden12:30C. Sissons4:43

Pair 1B. McNabb18:04S. Theodore17:16

Pair 2J. Lauzon14:51K. Korczak14:32

Pair 3Z. Whitecloud12:51B. Hutton12:43

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli11:54B. Hagel14:19J. Guentzel14:39

Line 2Y. Gourde12:51Z. Girgensons14:39P. Holmberg10:46

Line 3N. Kucherov13:52B. Point10:34

Line 4D. James11:01G. Goncalves11:09O. Bjorkstrand10:09

Pair 1R. McDonagh15:12E. Cernak14:04

Pair 2J. Moser19:16V. Hedman12:59

Pair 3D. Raddysh8:41E. Lilleberg12:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, TBL 3.0	VGK 1, TBL 2
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	VGK 27.9, TBL 25.4	VGK 19, TBL 28
Win chance	VGK 51%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.1	3	0.99	0	29%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	2	1.42	1	34%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	5	1.02	1	38%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.9	2	0.58	0	30%	0
TBL B. Point	2.4	1	0.97	0	38%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.3	5	0.81	2	27%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	4	0.65	0	25%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.0	1	0.58	1	10%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.0	2	0.72	1	13%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.9	1	0.65	0	24%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.9	2	0.49	1	19%	1
VGK M. Marner	1.8	0	1.02	0	26%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	3	0.55	0	21%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.5	0	0.36	0	17%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	0	0.39	1	15%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.4	1	0.20	0	5%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	2	0.53	0	20%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.3	2	0.43	0	14%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.3	1	0.23	0	12%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.2	0	0.34	0	16%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.2	1	0.34	0	6%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.24	0	5%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	0	0.22	0	3%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	0	0.12	0	4%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.0	1	0.27	0	11%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.0	0	0.14	0	9%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	1	0.34	0	5%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	1	0.37	0	12%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.18	0	6%	0
VGK C. Sissons	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.20	0	3%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	1	0.24	0	9%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.5	0	0.15	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.