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Game Recap
VGK3
VAN2
VGK beat VAN 3-2, with the chances close: 3.12 expected goals to 2.81. VGK outshot VAN 35 to 21. V. Olofsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Hill stopped 19 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 4:46VANN. Hoglander0.47 xG
- 1st 8:36VGKI. Barbashev0.27 xG
- 1st 13:15VGKN. Roy0.01 xG
- 2nd 8:03VANA. Räty0.49 xG
- 3rd 16:46VGKV. Olofsson0.17 xG
Team Stats
VGKVAN
35Shots on goal21
3.12Expected goals2.81
70Shot attempts49
315v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play0/2
7Hits27
14Blocked shots21
2Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways17
2Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.12 xGVAN 2.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 2:50 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:54 | 2:33 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 1:08 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:45 | 1:08 |
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:44 | 1:25 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:06 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:11 | 2:44 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 2:45 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:08 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:05 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:38 | 2:50 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:28 | 1:08 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:58 | 3:35 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:53 | 3:33 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:23 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:26 |
| A. Räty | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:35 | 0:25 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:28 | 3:10 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 3:02 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:22 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:49 | 0:56 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 26:42 | 3:33 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:25 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 58:45 | Loss |
| T. Demko | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.1, VAN 2.8 | VGK 3, VAN 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 26.9, VAN 24.6 | VGK 35, VAN 21 |
| Win chance | VGK 55% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 2.7 | 4 | 0.97 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.6 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.4 | 0 | 0.94 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.9 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.8 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.7 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.5 | 5 | 0.41 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 4 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.1 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 0.9 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.