Game Recap: VGK 3, VAN 2, October 4, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

VGK3

FinalSun, Oct 4, 2026Every game that night

VAN2

VGK beat VAN 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.53 expected goals to 1.45. VGK outshot VAN 28 to 20. A. Hill stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	3	0	3
VAN	1	1	0	2

1st 18:52VANP. CotterPP0.10 xG
2nd 9:01VGKM. Marner0.19 xG
2nd 14:30VGKV. OlofssonPP0.56 xG
2nd 17:54VANJ. Lekkerimäki0.06 xG
2nd 18:28VGKM. Gatcomb0.35 xG

Team Stats

VGKVAN

28Shots on goal20

4.53Expected goals1.45

60Shot attempts36

205v5 shots on goal14

1/5Power play1/3

19Hits25

7Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes10

17Giveaways16

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.53 xGVAN 1.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK28 on goal, 3 scored

VAN20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	21:56	5:48
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	19:52	5:50
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	2	19:45	5:50
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	14:35	3:48
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:11	0:10
B. Bowman	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	10:41	1:55
M. Gatcomb	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	9:07	0:10
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	18:20	1:53
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	17:16	0:10
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	2	16:29	5:45
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:03	0:00
T. Connelly	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:23	1:36
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	19:00	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+2	0	22:11	3:51
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:37	0:10
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:25	0:19
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:12	2:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	15:22	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	20	18	2	.900	60:00	Win
C. Hart	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	3	3	3	0	0	20:29	3:01
P. Cotter	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	18:46	2:54
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	13:31	0:42
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	10:31	0:51
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	18:30	3:02
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:18	3:02
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:30	0:11
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	16:24	0:06
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:56	0:50
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:04	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	9:56	0:04
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	7:34	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	+1	0	26:25	2:57
L. Schenn	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	2	13:07	0:10
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	21:02	0:55
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	20:07	1:04
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	17:47	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	17:04	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	28	25	3	.893	57:29	Loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone12:49J. Eichel12:56I. Barbashev11:50

Line 2B. Howden14:28M. Marner12:58W. Karlsson12:56

Line 3V. Olofsson10:27T. Hertl10:22T. Connelly9:47

Line 4N. Dowd8:45M. Gatcomb8:57B. Bowman8:46

Pair 1B. McNabb14:48S. Theodore15:27

Pair 2N. Hanifin17:32J. Lauzon13:24

Pair 3R. Andersson14:11P. Wotherspoon14:42

VAN

Line 1E. Pettersson13:41L. Karlsson11:44M. Rossi13:03

Line 2B. Boeser12:07P. Cotter12:39L. Ohgren11:43

Line 3A. Bains11:48M. Sasson10:50D. O'Connor11:18

Line 4B. Gallagher7:34A. Räty9:06J. Lekkerimäki9:18

Pair 1J. Oleksiak14:41T. Willander17:55

Pair 2E. Pettersson12:20F. Hronek16:41

Pair 3L. Schenn10:40Z. Buium17:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 13 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	+125	-155	2	Under
VAN B. Boeser	2.5	+140	-178	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	2.5	+142	-145	3	Over
VGK M. Stone	2.5	+126	-150	3	Over
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	+120	-148	2	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	2.5	+170	-195	2	Under
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	-140	+125	1	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	+105	-140	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	-120	-110	2	Over
VAN L. Ohgren	1.5	+120	-155	2	Over
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	+105	-114	1	Under
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	-150	+130	1	Under
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	-155	+135	2	Over

5 of 34 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
VAN A. Bains	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
VAN A. Räty	0.5	+725	-1200	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+260	-320	0	Under
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+310	-475	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+625	-800	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+290	-475	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
VGK J. Lauzon	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+500	-900	1	Over
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+410	-650	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+490	-800	0	Under
VAN L. Schenn	0.5	+2500	-10000	0	Under
VGK M. Gatcomb	0.5	+800	-1400	1	Over
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+185	-250	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+390	-475	0	Under
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+165	-210	0	Under
VGK N. Dowd	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+500	-1000	1	Over
VGK P. Wotherspoon	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+525	-900	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+425	-700	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+475	-650	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+1300	-5000	0	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+380	-700	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+310	-475	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+800	-2800	0	Under

5 of 23 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
VAN A. Räty	0.5	+650	-1100	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+220	-250	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+265	-380	1	Over
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+155	-175	1	Over
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+180	-235	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	-135	+120	1	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+380	-450	1	Over
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	-128	+110	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+105	-120	1	Over
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
VGK P. Wotherspoon	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+165	-210	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+110	-120	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+165	-210	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+390	-575	0	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+285	-325	0	Under

5 of 23 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
VGK J. Eichel	1.5	+154	-170	1	Under
VGK M. Marner	1.5	+182	-225	1	Under
VAN A. Räty	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+100	-111	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+215	-295	1	Over
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+115	-135	1	Over
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+105	-120	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+190	-200	1	Over
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+155	-215	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+110	-132	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	-210	+188	1	Over
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
VGK P. Wotherspoon	0.5	+260	-360	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	-130	+110	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	-130	+110	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+135	-180	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under

4 of 13 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+235	-400	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+210	-350	1	Over
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+100	-140	1	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+340	-750	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+115	-165	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+250	-425	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+140	-200	1	Over
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+160	-240	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+180	-275	0	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
VAN K. Lankinen	27.5	-112	-115	25	Under
VGK A. Hill	18.5	-120	-115	18	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	-130	-105	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.8, VAN 2.7	VGK 3, VAN 2
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	VGK 29.4, VAN 24.5	VGK 28, VAN 20
Win chance	VGK 65%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	2	1.28	1	31%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.4	3	1.29	1	31%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	2	0.70	0	24%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.2	3	1.10	1	32%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	2	0.69	0	23%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	0	0.63	0	26%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	2	0.86	0	16%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.7	4	0.46	1	20%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	1.7	3	0.70	1	24%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.7	3	0.34	0	16%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.7	1	0.49	0	13%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	1	0.53	1	8%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.6	1	0.57	0	24%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.6	2	0.45	1	16%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.67	0	21%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.5	2	0.38	0	15%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.4	1	0.46	0	10%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.4	1	0.56	0	20%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.2	1	0.44	1	13%	0
VAN B. Gallagher	1.1	1	0.24	0	10%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.36	1	6%	0
VGK M. Gatcomb	1.1	1	0.21	1	11%	1
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	1	0.30	0	15%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	0	0.23	0	11%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.0	1	0.26	1	12%	1
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	0	0.29	0	6%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
VAN P. Cotter	0.9	2	0.25	1	13%	1
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.9	1	0.28	1	11%	0
VGK P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.36	0	4%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.8	1	0.32	0	6%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.14	0	4%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	2	0.17	0	8%	0
VAN L. Schenn	0.6	0	0.09	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.