Game Recap: VGK 3, WPG 2 (OT), December 12, 2024

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Game Recap

VGK3

Final/OTThu, Dec 12, 2024Every game that night

WPG2

VGK beat WPG 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.17 expected goals to 1.37. VGK outshot WPG 36 to 20. S. Theodore led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). T. Pearson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. A. Hill stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	0	0	2	1	3
WPG	1	0	1	0	2

1st 9:27WPGN. Chibrikov0.33 xG
3rd 4:34VGKK. Kolesar0.03 xG
3rd 10:55WPGJ. Morrissey0.02 xG
3rd 18:11VGKV. OlofssonPP0.21 xG
OT 3:47VGKI. Barbashev0.14 xG

Team Stats

VGKWPG

36Shots on goal20

3.17Expected goals1.37

84Shot attempts43

305v5 shots on goal17

1/4Power play0/1

27Hits31

12Blocked shots25

2Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways15

13Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.17 xGWPG 1.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK36 on goal, 3 scored

WPG20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	21:58	3:47
I. Barbashev	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	19:52	0:55
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	15:59	3:52
K. Kolesar	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	12:42	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	2	22:08	3:52
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	16:02	1:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	2	2	3	-1	0	15:20	3:47
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	14:34	0:46
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	14:03	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	13:52	0:04
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	11:59	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	10:52	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	2	2	0	0	1	+1	0	26:17	3:46
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	22:54	0:50
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	21:24	0:56
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	19:21	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	15:55	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	20	18	2	.900	63:35	Win
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Namestnikov	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:40	0:29
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	13:45	0:29
A. Iafallo	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:50	0:00
N. Chibrikov	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	11:25	0:00
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	21:18	0:00
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	21:06	0:00
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	18:01	0:00
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	14:19	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	2	14:18	0:29
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:01	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:52	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	+1	0	11:42	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	1	0	1	3	4	4	+2	0	25:18	0:29
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	2	25:15	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	2	23:28	0:29
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	19:23	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	18:45	0:00
V. Heinola	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	36	33	3	.917	63:47	OT loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownBrett Howden VGK Plays near home (born in Oakbank)2 SOG
HometownMark Stone VGK Plays in his hometown1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.9, WPG 3.1	VGK 3, WPG 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	VGK 29.6, WPG 29.9	VGK 36, WPG 20
Win chance	WPG 53%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.4	0	1.02	0	38%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	4	0.96	0	30%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	4	0.54	0	27%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.3	0	0.77	0	33%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.2	4	0.64	0	23%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	2	0.98	0	34%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.2	3	0.80	1	12%	1
WPG C. Perfetti	2.1	2	0.61	1	21%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.1	2	0.48	0	23%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.0	0	0.62	2	9%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.9	2	0.81	1	25%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.9	2	0.46	0	8%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.8	2	0.51	0	20%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	3	0.42	0	9%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.7	3	0.44	1	21%	1
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	1	0.50	0	7%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	1	0.63	1	22%	1
VGK N. Roy	1.5	0	0.43	0	16%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	1	0.38	0	14%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	2	0.43	0	17%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	2	0.32	0	16%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.3	2	0.20	0	3%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.3	1	0.26	0	12%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	1	0.24	0	4%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	1	0.46	1	16%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	0	0.30	1	13%	0
WPG V. Heinola	1.1	0	0.20	0	2%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	1	0.17	0	9%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	0	0.14	0	3%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.1	4	0.25	0	10%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	3	0.26	1	11%	1
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.27	1	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	0	0.19	0	5%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	0	0.17	0	3%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.8	0	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.