Game Recap: VGK 4, WPG 3 (OT), January 6, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK4

Final/OTTue, Jan 6, 2026Every game that night

WPG3

VGK beat WPG 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.11 expected goals to 1.95. VGK outshot WPG 31 to 20. T. Hertl led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Lauzon had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. C. Hart stopped 17 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	0	1	2	1	4
WPG	1	1	1	0	3

1st 5:16WPGC. Perfetti0.21 xG
2nd 12:04WPGL. Schenn0.02 xG
2nd 19:09VGKM. StonePP0.13 xG
3rd 8:13VGKB. Howden0.26 xG
3rd 14:56WPGK. Connor0.13 xG
3rd 15:55VGKR. Smith0.08 xG
OT 4:47VGKT. HertlPP0.13 xG

Team Stats

VGKWPG

31Shots on goal20

3.11Expected goals1.95

65Shot attempts36

235v5 shots on goal13

2/4Power play0/2

27Hits25

10Blocked shots18

9Penalty minutes13

13Giveaways13

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.11 xGWPG 1.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK30 on goal, 4 scored

WPG19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	-1	0	20:13	3:42
T. Hertl	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	15:48	3:40
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	25:59	3:44
M. Stone	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	22:03	3:44
B. Saad	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:11	0:00
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	16:08	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	15:56	3:02
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	14:13	0:00
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:15	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	+1	5	12:00	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	11:56	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:28	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	3	3	2	+2	0	30:49	0:06
B. Hutton	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:19	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	23:34	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	21:30	0:04
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	4	5	1	-1	0	19:33	0:00
J. Megna	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	5:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	20	17	3	.850	64:47	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
G. Vilardi	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+3	0	16:51	2:07
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:15	2:15
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	16:15	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	2	14:59	0:47
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:19	0:39
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	21:14	2:16
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	4	4	0	+1	0	17:26	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:23	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	14:09	0:46
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:57	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:48	2:08
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:30	0:38
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	0	2	27:16	2:27
L. Schenn	D	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	13:52	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	4	28:07	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	+1	0	26:23	0:27
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	24:49	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	31	27	4	.871	64:47	OT loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev14:15J. Eichel18:37M. Stone16:26

Line 2B. Howden13:59K. Kolesar12:00T. Hertl12:08

Line 3R. Smith11:27B. Saad13:19M. Marner13:39

Line 4P. Dorofeyev12:54B. Bowman11:56C. Sissons8:48

Pair 1K. Korczak20:15J. Lauzon17:46

Pair 2N. Hanifin25:54Z. Whitecloud20:15

Pair 3B. Hutton15:48J. Megna5:04

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele17:17K. Connor17:12A. Iafallo15:37

Line 2N. Niederreiter13:23M. Barron13:41A. Lowry12:55

Line 3G. Vilardi13:36C. Perfetti13:40J. Toews12:27

Line 4G. Nyquist8:56V. Namestnikov8:52T. Pearson10:34

Pair 1D. DeMelo22:16J. Morrissey23:38

Pair 2D. Samberg24:34N. Pionk20:56

Pair 3L. Schenn12:20H. Fleury2:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownBrett Howden VGK Plays near home (born in Oakbank)1 G, 3 SOG
HometownMark Stone VGK Plays in his hometown1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.7, WPG 2.8	VGK 4, WPG 3
Total goals	5.6	7
Shots on goal	VGK 25.9, WPG 25.4	VGK 31, WPG 20
Win chance	WPG 52%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.2	2	1.15	1	37%	1
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	3	1.02	1	28%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	0	0.60	1	28%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.2	3	0.52	1	11%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	0	1.09	0	36%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	5	0.61	2	23%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	1	0.84	2	32%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	2	0.88	1	25%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	1.8	0	0.71	1	13%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.7	1	0.99	2	24%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	2	0.37	0	7%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.6	1	0.46	1	16%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.5	4	0.33	0	14%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.5	1	0.27	1	8%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.5	2	0.31	1	15%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.3	0	0.54	0	19%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.3	2	0.36	0	17%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	0	0.35	0	15%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.3	0	0.41	0	13%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.24	0	4%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.2	1	0.46	0	15%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.2	1	0.38	1	14%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.2	3	0.38	1	17%	1
VGK R. Smith	1.2	4	0.36	1	14%	1
WPG A. Lowry	1.1	1	0.35	1	15%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	1	0.30	0	5%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	4	0.15	0	4%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	0.9	1	0.31	0	11%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	1	0.20	0	6%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.8	1	0.28	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	1	0.22	0	8%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.7	1	0.11	1	2%	1
WPG H. Fleury	0.7	0	0.11	0	2%	0
VGK J. Megna	0.7	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.