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Game Recap
WPG1
FinalSun, Nov 9, 2025Every game that night
ANA4

ANA beat WPG 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.20 expected goals to 2.32. L. Carlsson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Connor had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. L. Dostal stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
WPG0101
ANA2114
  1. 1st 7:18ANAB. Sennecke0.23 xG
  2. 1st 19:03ANAL. CarlssonPP0.14 xG
  3. 2nd 4:22WPGK. Connor0.16 xG
  4. 2nd 11:48ANAB. Sennecke0.36 xG
  5. 3rd 2:47ANAL. CarlssonPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

WPGANA
24Shots on goal21
2.32Expected goals3.20
58Shot attempts60
215v5 shots on goal16
0/4Power play2/4
21Hits20
15Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes8
20Giveaways12
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.32 xGANA 3.20 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdANA goal, 7:18ANA goal, 19:03WPG goal, 4:22ANA goal, 11:48ANA goal, 2:47

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG24 on goal, 1 scored
ANA20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. ConnorLW101600-1022:004:25
M. ScheifeleC011101-1020:244:22
C. PerfettiC0001010217:594:17
G. VilardiC000110-1017:314:14
J. ToewsC0001020017:113:21
V. NamestnikovC0000310016:153:17
A. IafalloLW0002100015:363:24
N. NiederreiterRW0001200014:383:26
A. LowryC0000100014:100:16
P. FordC0000300011:040:19
T. PearsonLW000000008:420:15
N. ChibrikovRW000220006:090:00
J. MorrisseyD011421-1023:084:20
N. PionkD0000230022:573:46
D. DeMeloD000121-1219:060:13
L. StanleyD0001100218:070:00
L. SchennD0002120014:480:00
H. FleuryD0001030214:270:05
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
E. Comrie21174.81060:00Loss
C. Hellebuyck000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC2023110020:184:35
C. GauthierLW022500+2017:144:25
B. SenneckeRW202211+2216:131:12
C. KreiderLW0220000014:494:25
T. TerryRW0111000018:514:36
M. McTavishC011020+2016:041:14
A. KillornLW000100-1016:221:12
R. PoehlingC000102-1212:430:00
F. VatranoRW0000300011:580:00
N. NesterenkoC000021-1011:180:00
R. JohnstonLW0000300210:500:00
J. HarkinsC000020029:330:00
J. LaCombeD011222+1024:194:52
D. HellesonD011212+1018:100:09
J. TroubaD0002120025:190:56
O. ZellwegerD0000010017:271:24
P. MintyukovD0000100015:340:00
I. MooreD0002120014:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal24231.95860:00Win
P. Mrazek000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele15:40K. Connor15:06G. Vilardi13:17
Line 2J. Toews13:20V. Namestnikov12:32C. Perfetti13:42
Line 3N. Niederreiter11:12A. Iafallo9:58A. Lowry11:08
Line 4T. Pearson7:59P. Ford8:25N. Chibrikov6:09
Pair 1L. Stanley17:58N. Pionk16:33
Pair 2D. DeMelo17:17J. Morrissey17:12
Pair 3L. Schenn11:33H. Fleury11:59

ANA

Line 1M. McTavish14:45B. Sennecke15:01C. Gauthier12:46
Line 2T. Terry11:06L. Carlsson11:57C. Kreider10:24
Line 3A. Killorn11:20R. Poehling10:05N. Nesterenko9:43
Line 4R. Johnston10:50F. Vatrano11:04J. Harkins9:33
Pair 1J. Trouba19:25O. Zellweger15:45
Pair 2D. Helleson14:58J. LaCombe15:22
Pair 3I. Moore14:58P. Mintyukov11:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWPG 3.5, ANA 2.6WPG 1, ANA 4
Total goals6.05
Shots on goalWPG 30.2, ANA 27.3WPG 24, ANA 21
Win chanceWPG 63%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.461.17139%1
ANA C. Gauthier3.250.70227%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.411.09136%0
ANA T. Terry2.310.70124%0
WPG G. Vilardi2.310.85032%0
WPG J. Morrissey2.340.85116%0
WPG N. Pionk2.200.4909%0
ANA C. Kreider2.200.58231%0
ANA M. McTavish2.000.52120%0
ANA O. Zellweger2.000.2807%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.010.62021%0
ANA L. Carlsson1.930.68223%2
ANA J. LaCombe1.820.51111%0
WPG N. Niederreiter1.810.45021%0
ANA J. Trouba1.720.3307%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.720.46019%0
ANA A. Killorn1.710.44020%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.600.30016%0
WPG A. Lowry1.600.44019%0
WPG V. Namestnikov1.500.52018%0
WPG J. Toews1.510.51019%0
ANA B. Sennecke1.420.41216%2
ANA N. Nesterenko1.400.34014%0
WPG T. Pearson1.400.34014%0
ANA D. Helleson1.320.3018%0
WPG L. Stanley1.210.2905%0
WPG D. DeMelo1.110.3505%0
ANA R. Poehling1.110.34013%0
WPG H. Fleury1.010.1503%0
WPG N. Chibrikov1.020.28014%0
ANA I. Moore0.920.1604%0
WPG L. Schenn0.920.1103%0
WPG P. Ford0.800.23011%0
ANA P. Mintyukov0.800.2304%0
ANA J. Harkins0.800.1106%0
ANA R. Johnston0.400.1204%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.