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Game Recap
WPG4
Final/OTFri, Feb 27, 2026Every game that night
ANA5

ANA beat WPG 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 6.22 expected goals to 4.87. B. Sennecke led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. LaCombe had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. L. Dostal stopped 29 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
WPG11204
ANA01315
  1. 1st 1:24WPGA. Iafallo0.02 xG
  2. 2nd 2:25WPGG. VilardiPP0.20 xG
  3. 2nd 19:19ANAJ. Trouba0.02 xG
  4. 3rd 1:27WPGE. Salomonsson0.05 xG
  5. 3rd 6:32ANAL. CarlssonPP0.47 xG
  6. 3rd 9:59ANAP. Mintyukov0.58 xG
  7. 3rd 16:50ANAR. Poehling0.16 xG
  8. 3rd 18:38WPGK. Connor0.16 xG
  9. OT 4:47ANAC. Kreider0.63 xG

Team Stats

WPGANA
33Shots on goal40
4.87Expected goals6.22
68Shot attempts70
255v5 shots on goal28
1/4Power play1/2
14Hits23
6Blocked shots15
9Penalty minutes13
13Giveaways12
4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 4.87 xGANA 6.22 xGGoal

01234561st2nd3rdOTWPG goal, 1:24WPG goal, 2:25ANA goal, 19:19WPG goal, 1:27ANA goal, 6:32ANA goal, 9:59ANA goal, 16:50WPG goal, 18:38ANA goal, 4:47

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG32 on goal, 4 scored
ANA40 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. ConnorLW112300-1026:395:15
C. PerfettiC022421+3020:385:17
A. IafalloLW112110+1014:571:13
G. VilardiC101200-1022:325:21
A. LowryC011310+1016:300:00
M. ScheifeleC000101-1026:175:21
M. BarronC0002100014:010:00
G. NyquistRW000200-2013:081:28
J. ToewsC000300-1012:471:33
T. PearsonLW0002000212:020:00
C. KoepkeLW000000009:040:00
V. NamestnikovC000000003:510:50
L. StanleyD0222100228:135:00
D. SambergD0112010023:300:34
E. SalomonssonD101400+2017:400:00
D. DeMeloD000021-1024:280:50
L. SchennD000041-1513:390:00
V. HeinolaD000221-1012:071:13
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hellebuyck40355.87564:09OT loss
E. Comrie000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. SenneckeRW033330+2019:052:14
L. CarlssonC101300-1020:342:15
R. PoehlingC101202+1019:100:00
C. KreiderLW101300+1019:002:19
A. KillornLW0110000015:100:41
T. WasheC011331+1211:230:00
C. GauthierLW000220-1018:302:15
J. VielLW0002300014:500:00
M. McTavishC000110-1012:010:37
J. HarkinsC0003010011:000:37
R. JohnstonLW0000310510:510:00
P. MintyukovD1121010220:280:39
J. LaCombeD011614+1028:442:17
J. TroubaD101322-1026:570:42
D. HellesonD011210+1015:530:00
R. GudasD0002010016:130:00
O. ZellwegerD0003120414:390:00
I. MooreD0001300013:060:04
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal33294.87964:47Win
V. Husso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele18:14K. Connor19:02G. Vilardi16:36
Line 2A. Iafallo13:21A. Lowry14:42C. Perfetti12:57
Line 3J. Toews9:49G. Nyquist9:56V. Namestnikov2:58
Line 4T. Pearson11:26M. Barron11:55C. Koepke7:14
Pair 1L. Stanley21:11D. DeMelo20:03
Pair 2D. Samberg18:59E. Salomonsson16:06
Pair 3L. Schenn12:55V. Heinola10:51

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier15:20L. Carlsson15:50C. Kreider13:51
Line 2M. McTavish11:24B. Sennecke15:08J. Viel14:49
Line 3T. Washe9:02R. Johnston10:16
Line 4J. Harkins10:20R. Poehling13:43A. Killorn9:59
Pair 1J. LaCombe21:50J. Trouba20:10
Pair 2P. Mintyukov15:51D. Helleson15:50
Pair 3R. Gudas13:46O. Zellweger12:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWPG 3.1, ANA 3.0WPG 4, ANA 5
Total goals6.19
Shots on goalWPG 26.7, ANA 29.0WPG 33, ANA 40
Win chanceWPG 52%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.531.26240%1
ANA C. Gauthier3.120.74027%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.530.82326%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.311.23038%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.140.65222%0
ANA M. McTavish2.110.61022%0
WPG G. Vilardi2.020.90132%1
ANA A. Killorn2.000.52122%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.030.75124%1
ANA J. Trouba2.030.3718%1
ANA C. Kreider1.930.62130%1
ANA J. LaCombe1.860.61111%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.630.2708%0
WPG D. Samberg1.420.3015%0
WPG L. Stanley1.420.37210%0
WPG E. Salomonsson1.440.1215%1
ANA J. Viel1.320.19011%0
ANA R. Poehling1.320.49116%1
WPG J. Toews1.330.43016%0
WPG M. Barron1.320.28011%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.210.39210%1
WPG G. Nyquist1.220.42014%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.210.35215%1
WPG A. Lowry1.230.39116%0
WPG D. DeMelo1.200.3306%0
WPG V. Namestnikov1.200.37014%0
WPG V. Heinola1.120.2203%0
ANA I. Moore1.110.2606%0
ANA R. Gudas1.020.2103%0
WPG T. Pearson1.020.26012%0
WPG C. Koepke1.000.22010%0
ANA J. Harkins0.830.1808%0
WPG L. Schenn0.800.1403%0
ANA D. Helleson0.820.2015%0
ANA T. Washe0.830.19110%0
ANA R. Johnston0.500.1805%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.