Game Recap: WPG 6, CBJ 2, November 1, 2024

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Game Recap

WPG6

FinalFri, Nov 1, 2024Every game that night

CBJ2

WPG beat CBJ 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.31 expected goals to 1.61. WPG outshot CBJ 44 to 22. N. Ehlers scored three for WPG. D. DeMelo had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. E. Comrie stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	2	2	2	6
CBJ	1	1	0	2

1st 5:13WPGN. Ehlers0.03 xG
1st 11:02CBJS. Kuraly0.20 xG
1st 15:14WPGN. Ehlers0.08 xG
2nd 2:20WPGM. Appleton0.12 xG
2nd 16:30CBJS. MonahanPP0.08 xG
2nd 18:51WPGN. Ehlers0.15 xG
3rd 11:39WPGJ. MorrisseyPP0.04 xG
3rd 14:54WPGG. Vilardi0.25 xG

Team Stats

WPGCBJ

44Shots on goal22

4.31Expected goals1.61

72Shot attempts45

405v5 shots on goal18

1/2Power play1/2

17Hits20

11Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways17

8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 4.31 xGCBJ 1.61 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG44 on goal, 6 scored

CBJ22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	3	1	4	5	0	0	+3	0	17:19	2:33
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	2	18:26	2:34
G. Vilardi	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:45	2:34
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:26	2:32
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:38	0:00
M. Appleton	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:15	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+3	0	15:21	0:44
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	15:14	0:45
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:41	0:43
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:54	0:43
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	11:04	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10:59	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	1	1	2	5	2	2	0	0	25:02	2:48
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	+2	0	19:42	0:29
C. Miller	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	15:07	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	21:04	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+2	0	20:04	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+2	0	15:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	16:12	1:46
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:08	1:57
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	14:18	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	13:00	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	0	17:14	1:57
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:14	1:57
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-3	0	15:46	0:11
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:08	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	14:16	0:11
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	14:10	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	2	13:24	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	12:48	0:11
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	25:06	1:57
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	24:33	0:11
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	21:40	0:22
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-3	0	18:09	0:00
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:07	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	12:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	44	38	6	.864	59:38	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Monahan CBJ Faces WPG, his team until Apr 20241 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.7, CBJ 3.0	WPG 6, CBJ 2
Total goals	6.7	8
Shots on goal	WPG 32.6, CBJ 31.2	WPG 44, CBJ 22
Win chance	WPG 60%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.4	4	1.02	1	39%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.9	5	0.84	4	29%	3
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.9	4	0.66	1	12%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	1	0.58	1	27%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.5	5	0.92	2	14%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.4	3	0.65	1	23%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.3	3	0.79	1	33%	1
CBJ E. Chinakhov	2.3	0	0.52	0	21%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.3	5	1.02	1	36%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.3	3	0.50	0	20%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.2	2	0.44	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.2	1	0.44	0	20%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.1	3	0.50	0	24%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.1	0	0.60	0	21%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.9	2	0.52	1	8%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.6	2	0.41	0	18%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	1	0.42	1	15%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	1	0.41	0	10%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.5	2	0.46	1	18%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.4	0	0.34	1	13%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	1	0.33	0	6%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.4	0	0.25	1	6%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.3	0	0.22	0	12%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.3	1	0.25	0	12%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.27	0	4%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.31	0	13%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.2	2	0.21	0	3%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	3	0.46	0	16%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	0	0.31	0	13%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	1.1	1	0.20	0	10%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	1.1	2	0.23	0	3%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	1	0.23	1	11%	1
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	4	0.36	0	5%	0
WPG R. Kupari	1.0	3	0.17	0	7%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.8	0	0.13	0	2%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.7	0	0.18	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.