Game Recap: WPG 2, CBJ 1, April 4, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG2

FinalSat, Apr 4, 2026Every game that night

CBJ1

WPG beat CBJ 2-1, with the chances close: 2.37 expected goals to 2.22. WPG outshot CBJ 26 to 16. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 15 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	1	1	2
CBJ	1	0	0	1

1st 1:17CBJI. Provorov0.19 xG
2nd 18:14WPGK. Connor0.11 xG
3rd 10:58WPGK. Connor0.08 xG

Team Stats

WPGCBJ

26Shots on goal16

2.37Expected goals2.22

60Shot attempts50

265v5 shots on goal14

0/1Power play0/1

28Hits16

12Blocked shots16

2Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways11

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.37 xGCBJ 2.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG26 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ16 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	2	22:39	1:04
K. Connor	LW	2	0	2	2	1	0	+2	0	21:27	1:06
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	3	4	1	+2	0	19:45	0:54
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:30	1:05
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	15:49	1:05
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:50	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:59	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	11:55	0:00
P. Ford	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:53	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:40	0:55
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	11:30	0:56
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:49	0:55
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	23:56	0:58
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	25:23	1:02
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	25:08	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	22:08	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:08	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	9:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	16	15	1	.938	59:58	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	16:50	0:09
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:14	0:09
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	19:08	0:09
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	18:19	0:09
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:05	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:26	0:09
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:29	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:14	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	12:54	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:00	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:50	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	9:44	0:00
I. Provorov	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	22:29	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	27:42	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	27:27	0:09
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	18:05	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:53	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	26	24	2	.923	58:33	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele20:15K. Connor19:03A. Iafallo17:45

Line 2G. Vilardi16:13C. Perfetti14:42A. Lowry13:41

Line 3C. Koepke11:55P. Ford11:53J. Toews9:52

Line 4M. Barron12:50I. Rosen10:45B. Lambert10:34

Pair 1D. Samberg23:49N. Pionk21:48

Pair 2D. DeMelo21:49J. Morrissey24:09

Pair 3J. Bryson12:08H. Fleury9:24

CBJ

Line 1B. Jenner17:07S. Monahan15:50C. Garland15:29

Line 2M. Marchment15:33A. Fantilli17:39K. Marchenko14:47

Line 3C. Coyle14:10C. Sillinger15:14D. Heinen11:58

Line 4M. Wood9:44I. Lundestrom8:54Z. Aston-Reese12:54

Pair 1Z. Werenski26:26D. Mateychuk26:18

Pair 2I. Provorov20:54D. Fabbro17:11

Pair 3E. Gudbranson12:49J. Christiansen9:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Monahan CBJ Faces WPG, his team until Apr 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.9, CBJ 3.0	WPG 2, CBJ 1
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	WPG 25.6, CBJ 28.0	WPG 26, CBJ 16
Win chance	CBJ 52%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	0	1.00	0	20%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.2	2	1.13	2	38%	2
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	0	0.78	1	28%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	3	0.70	0	26%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.4	2	0.68	0	23%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	1	1.11	2	36%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	2	0.75	0	18%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	3	0.80	0	31%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.8	3	0.50	0	21%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.8	1	0.66	1	24%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	2	0.39	1	10%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.6	2	0.64	0	20%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	1	0.36	1	8%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	0	0.55	0	18%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	1	0.40	0	12%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.5	1	0.27	0	5%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.4	1	0.41	0	15%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.4	1	0.31	0	13%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	3	0.36	0	16%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.3	3	0.25	0	12%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	1	0.37	0	16%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.2	0	0.34	0	13%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	1	0.23	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	1	0.24	0	7%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.26	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.35	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	1	0.31	0	13%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.9	3	0.31	0	11%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.21	0	8%	0
WPG I. Rosen	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0
WPG P. Ford	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.7	0	0.11	0	3%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.7	0	0.15	0	7%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0
WPG J. Bryson	0.4	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.