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Game Recap
WPG0
FinalThu, Apr 2, 2026Every game that night
DAL3

DAL beat WPG 3-0, with the chances close: 2.81 expected goals to 2.17. A. Erne led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Samberg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Oettinger stopped 22 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
WPG0000
DAL2103
  1. 1st 9:43DALM. DuchenePP0.18 xG
  2. 1st 11:12DALA. Hyry0.15 xG
  3. 2nd 2:15DALA. Erne0.06 xG

Team Stats

WPGDAL
22Shots on goal21
2.17Expected goals2.81
52Shot attempts42
145v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play1/1
14Hits20
5Blocked shots15
19Penalty minutes23
11Giveaways21
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.17 xGDAL 2.81 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdDAL goal, 9:43DAL goal, 11:12DAL goal, 2:15

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG22 on goal, 0 scored
DAL21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ScheifeleC000210-1023:084:09
G. VilardiC000100-1023:034:08
K. ConnorLW000420-1022:374:20
C. PerfettiC0002000020:344:04
A. IafalloLW000100-1015:581:35
M. BarronC000111-1014:050:03
A. LowryC0000300513:030:00
C. KoepkeLW000000-1012:340:03
B. LambertC0000200011:111:47
J. ToewsC0000000011:101:51
I. RosenRW0001000010:091:38
P. FordC000220009:120:03
J. MorrisseyD0002020027:523:50
D. DeMeloD0000000022:400:17
D. SambergD000400-1022:070:08
N. PionkD00012101218:501:48
H. FleuryD000101-1214:250:16
E. SalomonssonD000010-208:560:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hellebuyck21183.85757:19Loss
E. Comrie000–0:00

DAL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. HyryRW112131+2011:490:00
A. ErneLW112150+2010:500:00
M. RantanenRW011001+1020:311:07
M. DucheneC1011100015:371:07
J. BennLW011100+1511:550:00
J. RobertsonLW0004210222:511:07
W. JohnstonC0001200019:201:07
M. BourqueC0002000017:590:00
J. HryckowianC0003110016:290:00
O. BäckC0000000016:170:00
C. BlackwellC00002101410:350:00
M. HeiskanenD0111000224:341:07
L. BichselD011123+1016:330:00
E. LindellD000311+1022:160:00
T. HarleyD0002140019:560:00
N. LundkvistD0000000015:390:00
I. LyubushkinD000001+2013:000:00
K. CapobiancoD000001007:490:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Oettinger222201.00060:00Win
C. DeSmith000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:41K. Connor15:59A. Iafallo14:00
Line 2A. Lowry12:40C. Perfetti14:12G. Vilardi16:37
Line 3J. Toews8:56C. Koepke11:24P. Ford9:09
Line 4I. Rosen8:31M. Barron12:32B. Lambert9:24
Pair 1D. DeMelo18:58J. Morrissey21:44
Pair 2D. Samberg20:29N. Pionk17:02

DAL

Line 2J. Benn11:55M. Duchene14:11C. Blackwell8:08
Line 3M. Bourque17:54O. Bäck12:38J. Hryckowian13:16
Line 4A. Erne10:50A. Hyry7:53
Pair 1E. Lindell15:56M. Heiskanen18:13
Pair 2N. Lundkvist15:39T. Harley17:43
Pair 3I. Lyubushkin11:46L. Bichsel14:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWPG 2.6, DAL 3.0WPG 0, DAL 3
Total goals5.63
Shots on goalWPG 23.9, DAL 25.7WPG 22, DAL 21
Win chanceDAL 57%DAL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
DAL J. Robertson3.341.13037%0
WPG K. Connor3.041.05035%0
DAL W. Johnston2.410.91034%0
DAL M. Rantanen2.301.12133%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.220.62021%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.121.03033%0
DAL M. Heiskanen2.010.73111%0
WPG J. Morrissey1.920.69014%0
DAL M. Bourque1.820.50019%0
WPG N. Pionk1.810.3808%0
WPG G. Vilardi1.710.72028%0
DAL T. Harley1.720.54012%0
DAL M. Duchene1.710.81126%1
DAL J. Benn1.510.65121%0
WPG D. Samberg1.440.2604%0
WPG M. Barron1.310.28012%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.310.33015%0
WPG C. Koepke1.300.24011%0
DAL N. Lundkvist1.200.2405%0
WPG A. Lowry1.200.37015%0
WPG J. Toews1.100.33013%0
DAL C. Blackwell1.100.26010%0
DAL J. Hryckowian1.130.40016%0
DAL A. Hyry1.110.21210%1
WPG E. Salomonsson1.100.1604%0
DAL E. Lindell1.030.3207%0
WPG D. DeMelo1.000.2404%0
WPG B. Lambert0.900.30010%0
DAL A. Erne0.910.1929%1
DAL L. Bichsel0.810.1817%0
WPG I. Rosen0.710.2009%0
DAL K. Capobianco0.700.1505%0
WPG H. Fleury0.710.1002%0
WPG P. Ford0.620.1508%0
DAL I. Lyubushkin0.600.1502%0
DAL O. Bäck0.600.2008%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.