DAL beat WPG 3-0, with the chances close: 2.81 expected goals to 2.17. A. Erne led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Samberg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Oettinger stopped 22 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 9:43DALM. DuchenePP0.18 xG
- 1st 11:12DALA. Hyry0.15 xG
- 2nd 2:15DALA. Erne0.06 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.17 xGDAL 2.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:08 | 4:09 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:03 | 4:08 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:37 | 4:20 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 | 4:04 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 1:35 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:03 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:03 |
| B. Lambert | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 1:47 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 1:51 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 1:38 |
| P. Ford | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:03 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:52 | 3:50 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:40 | 0:17 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:07 | 0:08 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 18:50 | 1:48 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:25 | 0:16 |
| E. Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 57:19 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hyry | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:31 | 1:07 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 1:07 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:51 | 1:07 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 1:07 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24:34 | 1:07 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:16 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 22 | 22 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WPG
DAL
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 2.6, DAL 3.0 | WPG 0, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 23.9, DAL 25.7 | WPG 22, DAL 21 |
| Win chance | DAL 57% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.3 | 4 | 1.13 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.0 | 4 | 1.05 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.4 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 0 | 1.12 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.2 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.1 | 2 | 1.03 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 1 | 0.73 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.8 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.5 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.1 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL A. Hyry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| WPG E. Salomonsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.0 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG B. Lambert | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG I. Rosen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WPG P. Ford | 0.6 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.