Game Recap: WPG 2, OTT 4, January 3, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG2

FinalSat, Jan 3, 2026Every game that night

OTT4

OTT beat WPG 4-2, with the chances close: 3.02 expected goals to 2.74. T. Chabot led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Meriläinen stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	0	1	2
OTT	1	2	1	4

1st 12:08WPGA. LowrySH0.26 xG
1st 15:03OTTT. ChabotPP0.14 xG
2nd 5:56OTTT. Chabot0.10 xG
2nd 15:50OTTD. BathersonPP0.13 xG
3rd 10:10WPGK. Connor0.21 xG
3rd 15:28OTTC. Giroux0.04 xG

Team Stats

WPGOTT

23Shots on goal27

2.74Expected goals3.02

60Shot attempts43

175v5 shots on goal21

0/4Power play2/5

18Hits20

7Blocked shots19

10Penalty minutes18

8Giveaways10

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.74 xGOTT 3.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG23 on goal, 2 scored

OTT25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	22:29	4:32
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:13	0:09
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:34	4:21
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:04	4:29
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:28	4:42
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	15:35	0:09
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:24	3:08
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:17	3:31
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:34	3:19
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:21	3:15
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:46	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8:20	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	26:05	4:13
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	2	18:15	0:16
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	+1	0	24:44	3:47
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:51	0:09
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	6	12:33	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	10:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	27	23	4	.852	57:21	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	21:22	4:46
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	20:49	5:59
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	2	18:42	3:38
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	18:26	5:46
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	18:00	5:44
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:23	0:07
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	10	14:18	3:07
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	13:33	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:24	3:44
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	10:10	0:05
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:03	1:34
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:53	3:36
T. Chabot	D	2	0	2	2	0	3	0	0	20:30	3:42
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	0	0	27:56	5:55
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	16:09	0:15
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	+1	4	19:48	0:07
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	15:48	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
H. Shepard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele14:01K. Connor13:12G. Vilardi11:31

Line 2J. Toews11:26C. Perfetti10:40M. Barron10:42

Line 3N. Niederreiter11:46A. Lowry10:16

Line 4T. Pearson6:21V. Namestnikov4:52C. Koepke4:20

Pair 1D. DeMelo15:11J. Morrissey17:10

Pair 2D. Samberg14:31N. Pionk12:57

Pair 3C. Miller9:41L. Stanley10:23

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio11:46S. Pinto11:42C. Giroux10:22

Line 2D. Cozens11:26D. Batherson11:02B. Tkachuk9:57

Line 3R. Greig12:17F. Zetterlund8:29T. Stützle10:02

Line 4D. Perron7:34N. Cousins10:05S. Halliday4:17

Pair 1A. Zub14:51J. Sanderson14:27

Pair 2N. Jensen13:51T. Chabot14:22

Pair 3J. Spence10:39T. Kleven11:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.9, OTT 2.8	WPG 2, OTT 4
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	WPG 25.3, OTT 27.3	WPG 23, OTT 27
Win chance	WPG 51%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.7	3	0.77	1	29%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.3	2	1.13	2	37%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.3	3	1.12	0	37%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	3	0.93	1	27%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	2	0.61	1	21%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.2	0	0.64	1	12%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	3	0.77	1	25%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	2	0.86	0	33%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	2	0.56	2	11%	2
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	1	0.54	1	23%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	0	0.39	0	17%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.8	0	0.70	1	14%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	3	0.35	0	7%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.6	2	0.46	0	16%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.5	1	0.33	0	14%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	3	0.61	1	19%	1
OTT D. Perron	1.5	1	0.49	0	19%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	2	0.35	1	14%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	0	0.42	0	18%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.3	1	0.34	0	16%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.24	0	4%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.3	0	0.38	0	5%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	2	0.31	0	14%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.2	0	0.37	0	13%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.1	2	0.34	1	15%	1
WPG C. Miller	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	2	0.26	0	11%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	2	0.16	0	3%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	2	0.26	0	6%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.0	0	0.31	0	12%	0
OTT S. Halliday	0.9	0	0.30	0	6%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	0	0.28	1	4%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.8	2	0.21	0	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	1	0.21	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.