Game Recap: WPG 4, PIT 5 (SO), March 21, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG4

Final/SOSat, Mar 21, 2026Every game that night

PIT5

PIT beat WPG 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.27 expected goals to 3.60. E. Karlsson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Chinakhov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Silovs stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
WPG	1	1	2	0	4
PIT	2	1	1	1	5

1st 1:06PITE. Chinakhov0.15 xG
1st 2:02PITR. Rakell0.23 xG
1st 3:50WPGM. Barron0.84 xG
2nd 6:10WPGC. KoepkeSH0.44 xG
2nd 15:22PITE. Karlsson0.02 xG
3rd 4:04WPGN. Pionk0.02 xG
3rd 8:36WPGB. Lambert0.03 xG
3rd 12:45PITE. Karlsson0.09 xG

Team Stats

WPGPIT

25Shots on goal32

3.60Expected goals3.27

60Shot attempts58

225v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play0/2

15Hits29

12Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes0

15Giveaways13

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 3.60 xGPIT 3.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG25 on goal, 4 scored

PIT31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Lambert	C	1	1	2	3	0	2	+2	0	13:45	0:49
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	18:16	0:00
M. Barron	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:25	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:08	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	8:44	0:47
J. Toews	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	8:03	0:50
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	24:28	1:13
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-2	0	23:49	1:13
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	19:18	0:00
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:46	1:11
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:15	1:10
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	10:53	0:47
N. Pionk	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	22:30	0:50
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	11:23	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	29:38	1:10
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	25:23	0:00
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	22:45	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	14:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	32	28	4	.875	65:00	OT loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	0	2	2	4	1	0	-1	18:49	3:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	1	2	5	0	2	+2	17:39	1:31
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	20:47	3:02
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	19:44	2:28
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	17:15	0:58
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	16:45	0:59
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	16:18	0:01
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	15:32	0:01
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	13:58	1:00
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	13:31	0:01
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:22	0:57
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:28	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	2	0	2	5	0	0	+1	25:31	2:59
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	2	2	2	2	2	0	23:26	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	22:47	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	26:13	1:01
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	7	1	-1	16:30	0:01
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	8:45	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	25	21	4	.840	65:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele21:32K. Connor20:16A. Iafallo18:27

Line 2G. Vilardi15:34C. Perfetti15:50A. Lowry15:25

Line 3M. Barron13:00B. Lambert12:56I. Rosen10:06

Line 4G. Nyquist7:57C. Koepke9:42J. Toews7:13

Pair 1J. Morrissey25:48N. Pionk19:13

Pair 2D. Samberg23:08E. Salomonsson21:30

Pair 3D. DeMelo8:51H. Fleury13:32

PIT

Line 1E. Malkin16:22E. Chinakhov15:55T. Novak14:40

Line 2S. Crosby16:49R. Rakell15:05B. Rust14:39

Line 3C. Dewar13:56N. Acciari14:45E. Soderblom13:30

Line 4A. Mantha11:20B. Kindel10:20J. Brazeau10:28

Pair 1K. Letang23:06S. Girard22:47

Pair 2E. Karlsson20:24P. Wotherspoon22:11

Pair 3C. Clifton15:44R. Shea7:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStuart Skinner WPG Faces PIT, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.8, PIT 3.1	WPG 4, PIT 5
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	WPG 25.2, PIT 28.9	WPG 25, PIT 32
Win chance	PIT 55%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	5	1.11	0	37%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	4	0.85	2	30%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	2	0.77	1	27%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	5	0.78	2	15%	2
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.4	5	0.61	2	23%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.3	1	1.03	1	32%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.3	3	0.63	0	22%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	1	0.83	1	24%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	0	1.10	0	36%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	1	0.75	0	16%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.9	1	0.74	0	26%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	1	0.74	0	30%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	2	0.47	0	10%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.7	2	0.60	0	22%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.7	4	0.44	0	18%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	2	0.39	1	8%	1
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	1	0.42	0	17%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.4	1	0.31	1	13%	1
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	0	0.35	0	14%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	1	0.36	0	16%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.3	0	0.28	0	12%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.3	1	0.22	0	6%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	0	0.28	0	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	1	0.38	1	16%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.2	2	0.37	1	14%	0
PIT E. Soderblom	1.2	1	0.24	0	11%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	0	0.36	1	13%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.27	1	5%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.0	1	0.28	0	12%	0
PIT R. Shea	1.0	0	0.35	0	6%	0
PIT S. Girard	1.0	0	0.29	1	5%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	1	0.19	1	9%	1
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	2	0.28	2	3%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.8	1	0.20	0	4%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.7	1	0.12	0	3%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.7	3	0.29	2	10%	1

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.