Game Recap: WPG 3, PIT 2, October 5, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG3

FinalMon, Oct 5, 2026Every game that night

PIT2

WPG beat PIT 3-2, with the chances close: 2.77 expected goals to 2.78. A. Iafallo led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Connor had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. C. Stevenson stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	0	0	3	3
PIT	0	1	1	2

2nd 9:27PITB. Kindel0.45 xG
3rd 4:43WPGA. Iafallo0.27 xG
3rd 7:08WPGA. Lowry0.24 xG
3rd 8:53PITD. Carlile0.16 xG
3rd 9:02WPGC. Perfetti0.06 xG

Team Stats

WPGPIT

35Shots on goal31

2.77Expected goals2.78

54Shot attempts64

335v5 shots on goal27

0/1Power play0/2

23Hits11

14Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes2

18Giveaways22

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.77 xGPIT 2.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG33 on goal, 3 scored

PIT30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Iafallo	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	10:24	0:37
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	4	3	0	-1	0	19:59	1:23
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	1	5	1	+2	0	15:49	0:00
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	6	0	1	-1	0	21:59	1:26
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	21:18	1:24
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	15:55	0:00
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	14:21	1:23
V. Björck	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	13:30	0:36
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:43	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	12:05	0:34
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	11:04	0:37
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:29	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	23:50	1:35
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	22:24	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	21:03	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	20:04	0:25
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:53	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Stevenson	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Kindel	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	18:37	2:08
V. Koivunen	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	13:30	0:43
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	20:37	2:20
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	19:27	2:10
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	17:47	1:59
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:14	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:12	2:10
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	14:46	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:00	1:48
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:17	1:47
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	12:12	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:58	0:58
D. Carlile	D	1	1	2	3	0	3	+1	0	18:23	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	24:00	2:34
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	23:23	1:20
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:40	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	17:12	0:03
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Murashov	35	32	3	.914	57:23	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele19:17K. Connor19:27C. Perfetti17:49

Line 2G. Vilardi12:11V. Björck11:51I. Rosen11:31

Line 3A. Lowry12:37B. Lambert12:43M. Barron12:35

Line 4V. Namestnikov8:21C. Koepke7:19A. Iafallo8:08

Pair 1D. DeMelo18:58J. Morrissey21:11

Pair 2M. Ferraro15:04J. Ivany14:10

Pair 3D. Samberg17:16N. Pionk16:27

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:40R. Rakell15:19N. Robertson14:42

Line 2E. Malkin13:11T. Novak12:47E. Chinakhov12:08

Line 3C. Dewar13:21B. Lizotte12:12B. Kindel12:36

Line 4A. Kuzmenko10:19V. Koivunen12:47H. Lapierre10:00

Pair 1K. Letang19:26T. Riemsdyk18:17

Pair 2E. Karlsson18:49D. Carlile16:57

Pair 3S. Girard16:35K. Korczak12:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 14 overs hit (64%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
WPG K. Connor	3.5	+140	-160	6	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	2.5	+120	-150	4	Over
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.5	+125	-145	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	-115	-114	1	Under
PIT E. Malkin	2.5	+125	-160	4	Over
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	-125	+110	2	Under
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	-115	+100	5	Over
PIT B. Kindel	1.5	-125	+125	2	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	1.5	-148	+100	3	Over
WPG J. Morrissey	1.5	-165	+135	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	1.5	-150	+122	3	Over
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	-115	-115	2	Over
PIT N. Robertson	1.5	-105	-115	1	Under
PIT T. Novak	1.5	-125	-105	2	Over

5 of 33 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+650	-1400	1	Over
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+650	-1600	1	Over
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+310	-400	1	Over
WPG B. Lambert	0.5	+725	-1600	0	Under
PIT B. Lizotte	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
PIT C. Dewar	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+280	-390	1	Over
PIT D. Carlile	0.5	+1100	-2800	1	Over
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+240	-320	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+425	-750	0	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+260	-360	0	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+170	-210	0	Under
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+800	-2500	0	Under
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+800	-2500	0	Under
WPG M. Ferraro	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+250	-320	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+300	-500	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+175	-225	0	Under
PIT S. Girard	0.5	+1100	-4000	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+320	-500	0	Under
PIT T. Riemsdyk	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
WPG V. Namestnikov	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under

3 of 15 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+280	-525	0	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+270	-350	1	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+210	-225	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+105	-120	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+128	-155	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	+115	-140	1	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+135	-165	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+180	-260	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-110	-105	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+285	-500	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+155	-175	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	-110	+100	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under

4 of 15 overs hit (27%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
PIT S. Crosby	1.5	+200	-250	0	Under
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+135	-150	2	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+100	-120	1	Over
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-135	+120	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	-155	+130	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+100	-105	0	Under
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	-115	-105	1	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	-175	+145	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-185	+160	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+145	-160	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	-150	+140	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under

0 of 16 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+400	-750	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+390	-550	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+380	-550	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+375	-750	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+250	-260	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+310	-400	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+275	-450	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	+250	-300	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+225	-275	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+220	-275	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+250	-350	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+180	-250	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+360	-600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PIT S. Murashov	22.5	-115	-105	32	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStuart Skinner WPG Faces PIT, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.8, PIT 3.5	WPG 3, PIT 2
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	WPG 24.7, PIT 29.2	WPG 35, PIT 31
Win chance	PIT 61%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.0	6	0.96	0	33%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	2	0.82	0	29%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	5	1.10	0	32%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	1	0.87	1	17%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	4	0.90	0	26%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.1	0	0.59	0	22%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	4	0.53	1	18%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	1.9	3	0.96	0	30%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.8	0	0.63	1	14%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	2	0.41	2	17%	1
PIT N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.44	0	20%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	2	0.36	0	8%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	2	0.58	0	20%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.6	2	0.50	0	10%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.5	3	0.67	0	25%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.4	1	0.32	0	13%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	4	0.36	0	14%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	3	0.34	2	14%	1
PIT A. Kuzmenko	1.2	1	0.51	0	20%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.2	1	0.23	0	4%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	1	0.33	1	10%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.1	1	0.34	1	14%	1
WPG B. Lambert	1.0	1	0.25	0	10%	0
WPG M. Ferraro	1.0	2	0.24	0	6%	0
PIT S. Girard	1.0	1	0.38	0	6%	0
PIT D. Carlile	1.0	3	0.17	2	6%	1
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.0	4	0.27	0	11%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	2	0.37	0	14%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.0	1	0.21	0	11%	0
PIT H. Lapierre	0.9	0	0.37	0	10%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	1	0.23	1	5%	0
PIT T. Riemsdyk	0.9	0	0.27	0	4%	0
PIT K. Korczak	0.7	0	0.25	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.