Game Recap: WPG 5, TOR 2, December 23, 2024

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Game Recap

WPG5

FinalMon, Dec 23, 2024Every game that night

TOR2

WPG beat TOR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.04 expected goals to 2.57. M. Scheifele scored three for WPG. C. Dewar had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. C. Hellebuyck stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	1	3	5
TOR	0	1	1	2

1st 16:04WPGK. ConnorPP0.13 xG
2nd 1:16WPGK. Connor0.19 xG
2nd 5:25TORJ. TavaresPP0.24 xG
3rd 3:27WPGM. Scheifele0.20 xG
3rd 11:57WPGM. Scheifele0.25 xG
3rd 13:42TORJ. Tavares0.15 xG
3rd 19:39WPGM. ScheifeleEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

WPGTOR

27Shots on goal25

4.04Expected goals2.57

42Shot attempts70

205v5 shots on goal21

1/2Power play1/3

15Hits29

22Blocked shots6

11Penalty minutes9

8Giveaways10

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 4.04 xGTOR 2.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG27 on goal, 5 scored

TOR25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	3	1	4	5	0	1	+3	0	19:57	2:01
K. Connor	LW	2	2	4	4	0	0	+3	0	18:42	1:59
G. Vilardi	C	0	3	3	2	0	0	+2	0	16:52	2:01
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	4	18:02	0:01
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	17:33	0:01
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:19	0:52
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:09	0:52
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:55	1:50
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	11:41	0:54
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	10:09	0:01
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	5	9:46	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:14	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	2	2	0	1	4	+1	0	25:13	2:11
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	+1	0	24:05	0:43
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	2	23:22	0:11
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	18:10	0:53
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	14:47	0:00
V. Heinola	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	22:15	4:42
J. Tavares	C	2	0	2	2	2	0	-1	0	21:15	3:47
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	2	21:23	3:44
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	19:33	3:45
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:35	1:24
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	0	15:04	1:22
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	14:48	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	7	12:32	0:27
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:00	0:58
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	10:27	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	10:09	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:55	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	-2	0	20:14	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:37	3:32
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	21:25	1:37
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	18:19	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:48	0:27
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	13:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	26	22	4	.846	57:49	Loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownCole Perfetti WPG Plays near home (born in Whitby)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 3.1, TOR 3.1	WPG 5, TOR 2
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	WPG 28.4, TOR 31.1	WPG 27, TOR 25
Win chance	TOR 51%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR W. Nylander	3.5	3	1.00	2	37%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.1	2	0.81	2	30%	2
WPG K. Connor	3.0	4	0.95	4	35%	2
TOR B. McMann	2.4	1	0.43	0	22%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.2	0	0.68	0	23%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.2	4	1.04	1	27%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	2.1	1	0.50	0	19%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	5	0.90	4	32%	3
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	2	0.71	3	30%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	0	0.71	2	11%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	2	0.58	0	19%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	0	0.56	0	8%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	1	0.52	0	22%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.6	3	0.40	0	19%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.6	2	0.49	0	14%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	1	0.34	0	16%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	0	0.47	0	7%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	1	0.34	0	6%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.4	1	0.17	0	4%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.3	3	0.35	0	12%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	2	0.41	0	16%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.3	2	0.19	0	3%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.2	0	0.21	0	5%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	0	0.46	0	16%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	3	0.32	0	13%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.1	0	0.25	0	10%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	1	0.19	0	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.29	1	5%	0
WPG V. Heinola	0.9	0	0.18	0	2%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	2	0.31	0	4%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.16	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	0	0.26	0	3%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.8	5	0.18	0	8%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.8	1	0.25	0	11%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.10	0	2%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.7	0	0.14	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.