Game Recap: WPG 5, TOR 6, January 1, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

WPG5

FinalThu, Jan 1, 2026Every game that night

TOR6

TOR beat WPG 6-5 despite fewer good chances: 2.72 expected goals to 3.26. WPG outshot TOR 40 to 30. A. Matthews scored three for TOR. M. Scheifele had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. D. Hildeby stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	2	2	1	5
TOR	0	3	3	6

1st 14:09WPGG. Vilardi0.10 xG
1st 17:38WPGD. DeMelo0.02 xG
2nd 1:34TORA. Matthews0.19 xG
2nd 2:11WPGA. Iafallo0.09 xG
2nd 5:24WPGM. Scheifele0.30 xG
2nd 11:04TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.09 xG
2nd 19:57TORA. MatthewsPP0.10 xG
3rd 6:30TORM. Maccelli0.06 xG
3rd 8:50WPGM. ScheifelePP0.07 xG
3rd 13:13TORT. Stecher0.08 xG
3rd 15:38TORA. Matthews0.17 xG

Team Stats

WPGTOR

40Shots on goal30

3.26Expected goals2.72

65Shot attempts56

325v5 shots on goal27

1/2Power play1/1

17Hits23

12Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways15

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 3.26 xGTOR 2.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG39 on goal, 5 scored

TOR30 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	2	1	3	8	1	0	-1	0	20:28	2:00
G. Vilardi	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	-1	0	20:06	2:01
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	19:34	1:56
J. Toews	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	16:20	1:37
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	0	16:07	1:43
A. Iafallo	LW	1	0	1	2	2	3	+1	0	15:44	1:35
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	14:37	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	13:19	1:56
M. Barron	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	13:17	0:01
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	11:42	1:36
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:41	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-1	0	11:10	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	22:40	2:00
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	-2	2	22:10	1:37
D. DeMelo	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	21:59	0:03
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	21:18	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:27	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	14:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	30	24	6	.800	58:17	Loss
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	3	1	4	5	0	1	+2	0	19:42	1:04
M. Maccelli	LW	1	1	2	1	0	1	-1	0	12:58	1:04
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	18:59	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	2	17:15	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	4	2	0	-1	0	16:58	1:04
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:02	1:04
S. Laughton	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	13:57	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:11	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:55	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:53	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:45	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	3	2	2	+1	0	11:29	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	2	21:30	0:00
T. Stecher	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	24:53	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	21:13	1:04
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	+3	0	24:50	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	18:12	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	17	13	4	.765	25:24
D. Hildeby	23	22	1	.957	34:36	Win

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:45K. Connor15:55G. Vilardi16:22

Line 2J. Toews14:17C. Perfetti14:24A. Iafallo14:09

Line 3A. Lowry12:46M. Barron12:46T. Pearson11:41

Line 4G. Nyquist10:54C. Koepke10:35V. Namestnikov10:06

Pair 1D. DeMelo20:52D. Samberg20:14

Pair 2J. Morrissey18:57N. Pionk18:50

Pair 3C. Miller14:00L. Stanley14:27

TOR

Line 1B. McMann17:42A. Matthews17:13M. Domi17:15

Line 2J. Tavares13:58M. Knies13:49M. Maccelli11:54

Line 3N. Roy12:28N. Robertson11:55E. Cowan11:29

Line 4S. Laughton11:57S. Lorentz10:25C. Jarnkrok10:23

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson20:57J. McCabe21:35

Pair 2S. Benoit16:09T. Stecher21:31

Pair 3M. Rielly18:42P. Myers8:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayCole Perfetti WPG Turns 24 that day1 A, 5 SOG
HometownCole Perfetti WPG Plays near home (born in Whitby)1 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.8, TOR 3.0	WPG 5, TOR 6
Total goals	5.8	11
Shots on goal	WPG 27.9, TOR 26.4	WPG 40, TOR 30
Win chance	TOR 52%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.6	5	1.03	4	41%	3
WPG K. Connor	3.6	3	1.04	1	35%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	1	0.86	1	32%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.4	8	1.01	3	34%	2
WPG G. Vilardi	2.2	2	0.77	2	30%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.1	3	0.46	1	22%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	1	0.75	1	16%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	4	0.71	1	24%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	1	0.68	1	12%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	2	0.36	1	8%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.42	0	19%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.6	2	0.29	1	13%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.6	3	0.58	1	15%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	3	0.42	0	15%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.5	5	0.38	1	14%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	3	0.44	2	9%	1
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.55	2	17%	1
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	0	0.25	0	5%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.4	1	0.41	1	14%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	1	0.34	1	14%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	1	0.45	0	16%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.2	4	0.21	0	10%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	2	0.26	1	12%	1
WPG C. Miller	1.2	1	0.22	0	6%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.2	0	0.30	1	12%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.2	0	0.15	0	4%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	2	0.30	1	13%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	2	0.23	0	10%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.29	0	11%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	2	0.19	1	5%	1
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.0	2	0.27	0	11%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.40	0	7%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	1	0.28	0	13%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	2	0.29	1	5%	1
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.