Game Recap: WPG 3, UTA 4 (OT), December 21, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG3

Final/OTSun, Dec 21, 2025Every game that night

UTA4

UTA beat WPG 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.10 expected goals to 2.02. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Pionk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. K. Vejmelka stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WPG	0	1	2	0	3
UTA	2	1	0	1	4

1st 5:20UTAL. Crouse0.13 xG
1st 9:31UTAJ. Peterka0.20 xG
2nd 3:01UTAA. Kerfoot0.16 xG
2nd 11:18WPGK. ConnorPP0.10 xG
3rd 15:23WPGK. Connor0.04 xG
3rd 15:48WPGM. Barron0.21 xG
OT 0:13UTAC. Keller0.11 xG

Team Stats

WPGUTA

26Shots on goal22

2.02Expected goals3.10

54Shot attempts50

245v5 shots on goal14

1/3Power play0/3

27Hits16

15Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways13

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.02 xGUTA 3.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG25 on goal, 3 scored

UTA20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	23:48	3:02
K. Connor	LW	2	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	23:03	2:59
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:33	3:08
M. Barron	C	1	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	14:24	0:05
T. Pearson	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	4	12:34	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	14:26	0:07
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:23	3:02
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:09	0:04
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:44	1:44
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:52	1:45
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:12	1:39
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:44	1:39
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	23:55	3:03
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	5	4	3	-1	2	22:37	1:46
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	20:50	0:10
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	19:16	0:02
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	16:21	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	12:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	22	18	4	.818	60:13	OT loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	18:31	3:24
D. Guenther	RW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+2	0	16:19	3:39
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:30	3:32
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	17:10	2:08
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	16:55	3:27
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	14:12	2:21
A. Kerfoot	C	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	13:49	0:13
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:57	0:14
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	13:41	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:45	2:21
D. But	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11:45	2:11
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	11:29	0:12
M. Sergachev	D	0	2	2	2	1	3	+1	0	25:19	3:48
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	21:43	2:10
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:30	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:06	0:16
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:38	0:04
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	13:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	26	23	3	.885	60:13	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele20:34K. Connor18:26G. Vilardi15:12

Line 2A. Lowry10:42M. Barron11:54T. Pearson12:05

Line 3V. Namestnikov10:44C. Perfetti8:05J. Toews10:07

Line 4N. Niederreiter9:33A. Iafallo11:42

Pair 1D. DeMelo16:35J. Morrissey20:21

Pair 2C. Miller12:33L. Stanley14:17

Pair 3D. Samberg16:41N. Pionk17:58

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz13:20C. Keller15:00J. Peterka13:28

Line 2L. O'Brien11:17K. Stenlund13:46A. Kerfoot11:57

Line 3J. McBain12:21M. Carcone10:24D. But9:34

Line 4L. Crouse12:05D. Guenther12:20B. Hayton11:41

Pair 1M. Sergachev18:02S. Durzi19:16

Pair 2N. Schmidt16:10J. Marino16:17

Pair 3I. Cole15:18N. DeSimone13:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayAlex Iafallo WPG Turns 32 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.7, UTA 2.8	WPG 3, UTA 4
Total goals	5.5	7
Shots on goal	WPG 24.3, UTA 28.2	WPG 26, UTA 22
Win chance	UTA 52%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.0	6	1.06	2	36%	2
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	3	0.74	2	28%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	2	0.89	2	28%	1
UTA J. Peterka	2.3	1	0.76	1	27%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	2	0.80	1	25%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	1	1.01	2	35%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.0	2	0.65	2	12%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.9	1	0.42	0	19%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	1	0.74	1	30%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	2	0.65	1	12%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	5	0.36	0	7%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	1	0.40	1	20%	1
UTA S. Durzi	1.7	1	0.42	1	9%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	1	0.36	1	15%	0
UTA D. But	1.6	3	0.20	0	9%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.5	0	0.46	0	17%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.5	1	0.29	1	13%	1
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.25	0	4%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.3	1	0.36	0	17%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	1	0.32	0	15%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.2	1	0.24	0	6%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.2	4	0.21	0	5%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	1	0.30	0	12%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.1	0	0.33	0	15%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.31	0	6%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.1	1	0.32	0	13%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	1	0.28	0	12%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	0	0.34	0	13%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	1	0.37	0	13%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.1	1	0.32	1	11%	1
WPG T. Pearson	1.0	0	0.24	1	11%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	0	0.14	0	5%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	1	0.21	0	5%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	0	0.37	0	4%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	0	0.27	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.