Game Recap: WPG 3, UTA 5, April 14, 2026

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Game Recap

WPG3

FinalTue, Apr 14, 2026Every game that night

UTA5

UTA beat WPG 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.62 expected goals to 2.28. UTA outshot WPG 36 to 24. N. Schmaltz led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Schmaltz had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 21 of 24.

Team Stats

WPGUTA

24Shots on goal36

2.28Expected goals3.62

46Shot attempts71

175v5 shots on goal25

2/3Power play2/5

17Hits19

15Blocked shots8

10Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways18

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.28 xGUTA 3.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG24 on goal, 3 scored

UTA34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	-1	0	21:14	3:51
K. Connor	LW	1	1	2	6	2	1	-1	0	20:52	3:50
G. Vilardi	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	17:43	3:44
I. Rosen	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	11:48	0:39
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	16:56	0:42
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	15:54	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	15:05	2:59
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:26	1:32
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	12:46	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:20	0:50
B. Yager	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	10:16	0:00
N. Chibrikov	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	9:28	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	25:50	3:47
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	23:18	0:01
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	17:57	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	17:04	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:46	0:45
V. Heinola	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	14:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	35	31	4	.886	59:26	Loss
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	2	0	2	8	1	2	-1	0	21:21	5:47
L. Cooley	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	18:17	5:31
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	20:59	5:53
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:22	5:48
A. Kerfoot	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+2	0	15:54	2:18
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	15:02	2:05
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	17:32	2:12
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	14:28	2:08
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	13:52	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	10:14	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	9:12	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	8:47	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	6	0	1	-1	0	26:34	5:27
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+3	0	18:16	0:06
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:50	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	18:53	2:24
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+3	0	18:40	0:06
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	24	21	3	.875	59:29	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele14:41K. Connor13:11I. Rosen11:09

Line 2A. Lowry13:16C. Perfetti15:03B. Lambert11:23

Line 3J. Toews10:53N. Chibrikov9:03G. Vilardi13:13

Line 4C. Koepke8:29B. Yager7:36N. Niederreiter11:30

Pair 1D. DeMelo13:57J. Morrissey18:02

Pair 2D. Samberg18:12J. Bryson12:47

Pair 3C. Miller15:01V. Heinola14:44

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz13:34C. Keller14:35L. Crouse12:49

Line 2M. Carcone11:49J. Peterka12:26A. Kerfoot11:03

Line 3D. Guenther12:34L. Cooley12:12K. Yamamoto10:14

Line 4L. O'Brien8:47K. Stenlund10:47B. Tanev8:38

Pair 1J. Marino16:47N. Schmidt16:30

Pair 2M. Sergachev17:30M. Weegar15:00

Pair 3I. Cole17:22S. Durzi9:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrandon Tanev UTA Faces WPG, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.8, UTA 3.2	WPG 3, UTA 5
Total goals	6.0	8
Shots on goal	WPG 24.5, UTA 27.5	WPG 24, UTA 36
Win chance	UTA 58%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	2.8	6	1.01	2	36%	1
UTA D. Guenther	2.7	1	0.88	1	32%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.6	2	1.06	1	30%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	8	0.88	2	27%	2
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	2	1.02	2	33%	1
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	3	0.83	2	29%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	2	0.68	0	12%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	6	0.71	1	12%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	1	0.53	0	23%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.8	0	0.41	0	9%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	1	0.49	0	18%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.7	0	0.41	0	18%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.6	4	0.54	1	21%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	1.6	1	0.68	2	28%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.4	0	0.25	0	12%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	0	0.23	0	3%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.2	0	0.30	0	15%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.2	0	0.39	0	15%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.2	1	0.34	0	7%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	3	0.43	1	14%	1
WPG A. Lowry	1.0	2	0.33	0	14%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.0	3	0.32	0	14%	0
WPG B. Lambert	1.0	0	0.28	0	11%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.0	1	0.27	1	7%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.0	1	0.17	0	3%	0
WPG V. Heinola	1.0	2	0.18	0	3%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.24	0	4%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	1	0.15	0	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	0	0.26	0	11%	0
WPG I. Rosen	0.8	1	0.19	1	10%	1
WPG N. Chibrikov	0.8	3	0.18	0	10%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.24	0	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	1	0.14	0	7%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.6	0	0.37	0	4%	0
WPG J. Bryson	0.5	1	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.