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Game Recap
WPG3
VGK4
VGK beat WPG 4-3, with the chances close: 2.81 expected goals to 2.15. I. Barbashev led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Hill stopped 22 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| VGK | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 6:57WPGC. Perfetti0.12 xG
- 1st 18:13VGKB. Howden0.28 xG
- 1st 19:44VGKI. Barbashev0.03 xG
- 2nd 14:28WPGC. Perfetti0.01 xG
- 3rd 4:43VGKI. Barbashev0.19 xG
- 3rd 8:55WPGN. Pionk0.03 xG
- 3rd 15:55VGKB. Howden0.17 xG
Team Stats
WPGVGK
25Shots on goal30
2.15Expected goals2.81
55Shot attempts52
205v5 shots on goal24
0/3Power play0/2
22Hits17
12Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes6
18Giveaways14
7Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.15 xGVGK 2.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Perfetti | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:31 | 2:53 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 23:21 | 4:11 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:04 | 2:18 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:23 | 1:39 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:56 | 3:44 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:15 | 3:42 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 2:19 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:04 | 2:16 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:55 | 3:46 |
| N. Pionk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:49 | 2:14 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Coghlan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:38 | 1:28 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 58:19 | Loss |
| C. Hellebuyck | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:03 | 2:43 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:40 | 1:22 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 2:39 |
| B. Howden | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:35 | 0:47 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:20 | 1:20 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:29 | 2:40 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 2:38 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:30 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Burke | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:53 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:46 | 2:36 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:20 | 1:24 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 1:21 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.0, VGK 3.2 | WPG 3, VGK 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 28.6, VGK 32.2 | WPG 25, VGK 30 |
| Win chance | VGK 53% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.7 | 1 | 1.09 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.0 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 3 | 0.59 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 1 | 0.73 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.2 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 1 | 0.74 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.0 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.9 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.8 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.7 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.6 | 3 | 0.66 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| WPG D. Coghlan | 1.6 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| VGK C. Burke | 1.6 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.1 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.